Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Army at Kansas State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Army beat Kansas State 24–21, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas State wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Army.
Before kickoff Kansas State was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:52 left): Army converted 3rd & 4, worth 14 points of win probability to Army.
Final
 Army Black Knights | 24 |
|---|---|
 Kansas State Wildcats | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +81 Army very lucky · −81 Kansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Army wins 2, Kansas State wins 8.
- 1 ARMY 10 KSU 0
- 2 ARMY 3 KSU 0
- 3 ARMY 14 KSU 17
- 4 ARMY 0 KSU 5
- 5 ARMY 10 KSU 17
- 6 ARMY 7 KSU 17
- 7 ARMY 0 KSU 13
- 8 ARMY 3 KSU 17
- 9 ARMY 0 KSU 17
- 10 ARMY 0 KSU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Army wins 19% of them, Kansas State 81%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Army by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Army by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Army by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| Army by 1–8 | 11.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 28.7% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 25.3% |
| Kansas State by 17+ | 24.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Rodriguez, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- D. Jones, 35 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Army 2 for 10 yards, Kansas State 2 for 14 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:40 | False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:30 | Holding on Kansas State, 9 yards | +1% ARMY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:55 | False Start on Army, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:59 | Illegal Formation on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Kansas State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 5:59 | Army converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 3:30 | Army converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +8% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 8:55 | Army was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +5% KSU | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 8:30 | Army converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +12% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 4:40 | Army was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +11% KSU | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:50 | Army converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +8% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:52 | Army converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +14% ARMY | ARMY: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 1:52 | Kansas State converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +11% KSU | KSU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Army 60% · Kansas State 40%
- Final margin
- Army by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for Army
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Army by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Army 19% · Kansas State 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Army · 
Kansas State
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner