Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Tulsa at New Mexico State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
New Mexico State beat Tulsa 21–14, but the replays lean toward Tulsa: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 35 points of win probability to New Mexico State.
Before kickoff Tulsa was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:23 left): New Mexico State converted 3rd & 15, worth 27 points of win probability to New Mexico State.
Final
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 14 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico State Aggies | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 New Mexico State very lucky · −76 Tulsa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Tulsa wins 8, New Mexico State wins 2.
- 1 TLSA 38 NMSU 7
- 2 TLSA 26 NMSU 3
- 3 TLSA 24 NMSU 6
- 4 TLSA 31 NMSU 17
- 5 TLSA 20 NMSU 9
- 6 TLSA 17 NMSU 9
- 7 TLSA 16 NMSU 10
- 8 TLSA 30 NMSU 27
- 9 TLSA 17 NMSU 20
- 10 TLSA 13 NMSU 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Tulsa wins 76% of them, New Mexico State 24%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Tulsa by 17+ | 27.9% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 22.0% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 22.3% |
| Level after regulation | 5.5% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 5.4% |
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Hawk, 46 yds made · 62% expected
- S. Morgan, 49 yds missed · 55% expected
- R. Hawk, 38 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Tulsa 5 for 50 yards, New Mexico State 13 for 95 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:59 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU +0.2 pts |
| Q1 11:59 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TLSA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:33 | Illegal Formation on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 6:26 | Illegal Formation on New Mexico State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% TLSA +1.9 pts |
| Q1 4:15 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TLSA +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:15 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NMSU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:07 | Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards | 0% NMSU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 4:01 | Pass Interference on Tulsa, 15 yards | +2% NMSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:26 | Illegal Formation on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NMSU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 3:20 | Illegal Formation on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TLSA +0.4 pts |
| Q1 0:22 | Pass Interference on New Mexico State, 15 yards | 0% NMSU +0.2 pts |
| Q1 0:16 | Pass Interference on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +7% TLSA +2.9 pts |
| Q3 11:09 | Illegal Substitution on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TLSA 0.0 pts |
| Q3 11:05 | Illegal Substitution on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NMSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:24 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | 0% NMSU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +3% TLSA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:28 | Holding on Tulsa, 10 yards | +3% NMSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:32 | Illegal Formation on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% TLSA +0.9 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico State’s chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:18 | Tulsa was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedTulsa was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +7% NMSU | TLSA: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q2 0:03 | S. Morgan missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before | +8% NMSU | TLSA: End of half |
| 3 | Q3 7:03 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedNew Mexico State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +9% NMSU | NMSU: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 6:17 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedNew Mexico State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% NMSU | NMSU: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 3:06 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedNew Mexico State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% NMSU | NMSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 9:04 | Tulsa converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +14% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:55 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +9% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 3:23 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedNew Mexico State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +27% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Tulsa 91% · New Mexico State 9%
- Final margin
- New Mexico State by 7
- Luck in points
- 17.7 for New Mexico State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulsa by 10.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Tulsa 76% · New Mexico State 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Tulsa · 
New Mexico State
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Liberty at Jacksonville State JXST 34–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner