Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Liberty at Jacksonville State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Jacksonville State beat Liberty 34–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Jacksonville State wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.
Before kickoff Liberty was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:52 left): Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.
Final
 Liberty Flames | 24 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Jacksonville State lucky · −40 Liberty
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liberty wins 4, Jacksonville State wins 6.
- 1 LIB 34 JXST 10
- 2 LIB 24 JXST 10
- 3 LIB 12 JXST 3
- 4 LIB 24 JXST 21
- 5 LIB 20 JXST 22
- 6 LIB 14 JXST 19
- 7 LIB 31 JXST 38
- 8 LIB 27 JXST 38
- 9 LIB 0 JXST 17
- 10 LIB 3 JXST 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Liberty wins 40% of them, Jacksonville State 60%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liberty by 17+ | 8.8% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 10.7% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 19.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Rippa, 50 yds made · 53% expected
- J. Billingsley, 35 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Billingsley, 27 yds missed · 89% expected
- G. Rippa, 24 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Liberty 4 for 30 yards, Jacksonville State 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:52 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +16% JXST +5.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JXST +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards | +5% LIB +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Illegal Substitution on Liberty, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JXST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:08 | Holding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% JXST +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Jacksonville State’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:58 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% JXST | JXST: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 9:50 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% LIB | LIB: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 8:20 | Liberty was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +8% JXST | LIB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 3:08 | G. Rippa made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 5 of 5 from 45+ before | +6% JXST | JXST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:52 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedHolding on Liberty, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +16% JXST | LIB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 11:02 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% JXST | JXST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:58 | J. Billingsley missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +8% JXST | LIB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:47 | Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedJacksonville State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedHolding on Jacksonville State, 10 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Substitution on Liberty, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% JXST | JXST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liberty 62% · Jacksonville State 38%
- Final margin
- Jacksonville State by 10
- Luck in points
- 11.7 for Jacksonville State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liberty by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Liberty 40% · Jacksonville State 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Liberty · 
Jacksonville State
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