luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 45 of the 52 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Wisconsin beat Middle Tennessee 42–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wisconsin wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Wisconsin was a 97% favorite.

Final

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 10
Wisconsin Badgers 42

September 6, 2025 · Camp Randall Stadium · Closing line: Wisconsin −28.5

Luck index +1 Wisconsin about even · −1 Middle Tennessee

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Middle Tennessee wins 0, Wisconsin wins 10.

  1. 1 MTSU 21 WIS 28
  2. 2 MTSU 14 WIS 29
  3. 3 MTSU 10 WIS 30
  4. 4 MTSU 7 WIS 30
  5. 5 MTSU 3 WIS 31
  6. 6 MTSU 17 WIS 49
  7. 7 MTSU 21 WIS 56
  8. 8 MTSU 24 WIS 63
  9. 9 MTSU 3 WIS 47
  10. 10 MTSU 14 WIS 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Middle Tennessee wins 1% of them, Wisconsin 99%. The line is what actually happened: Wisconsin by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Middle Tennessee by 17+0.0%
Middle Tennessee by 9–160.0%
Middle Tennessee by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.3%
Wisconsin by 1–82.5%
Wisconsin by 9–166.0%
Wisconsin by 17+90.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to Wisconsin: the final margin was Wisconsin by 32, without the luck Wisconsin by 30.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Middle Tennessee 5 for 41 yards, Wisconsin 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:16 Delay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MTSU +0.2 pts
Q2 15:00 Intentional Grounding on Middle Tennessee, 13 yards +1% WIS +0.8 pts
Q2 14:54 Intentional Grounding on Middle Tennessee, 13 yards +2% WIS +1.9 pts
Q3 13:18 Illegal Shift on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MTSU 0.0 pts
Q3 13:14 Illegal Shift on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WIS +0.7 pts

When it happened

Wisconsin’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Wisconsin was ahead in it, below while Middle Tennessee was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:21 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedMiddle Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +2% MTSU MTSU: Field goal
2 Q1 4:16 Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedMiddle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedDelay of Game on Middle Tennessee, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% WIS MTSU: Field goal
3 Q2 14:54 Intentional Grounding on Middle Tennessee, 13 yardsJudgment calls +2% WIS WIS: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:16 Wisconsin converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +2% WIS WIS: Turnover
5 Q3 13:46 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedMiddle Tennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +2% MTSU MTSU: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 10:54 Middle Tennessee converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedMiddle Tennessee converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% MTSU MTSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 9:07 Middle Tennessee was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +2% WIS MTSU: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 8:18 Middle Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedMiddle Tennessee was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +3% WIS MTSU: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Middle Tennessee 0% · Wisconsin 100%

Final margin
Wisconsin by 32
Luck in points
1.4 for Wisconsin
Luck-adjusted margin
Wisconsin by 30.6
Replay with same day's form
Middle Tennessee 1% · Wisconsin 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 45 of the 52 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Middle Tennessee · Wisconsin

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