luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Delaware at Colorado, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Colorado beat Delaware 31–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Colorado wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Colorado was a 94% favorite.

Final

Delaware Blue Hens 7
Colorado Buffaloes 31

September 6, 2025 · Folsom Field · Closing line: Colorado −23.5

Luck index +12 Colorado about even · −12 Delaware

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Delaware wins 1, Colorado wins 9.

  1. 1 DEL 21 COLO 14
  2. 2 DEL 24 COLO 27
  3. 3 DEL 21 COLO 27
  4. 4 DEL 10 COLO 20
  5. 5 DEL 14 COLO 28
  6. 6 DEL 10 COLO 27
  7. 7 DEL 21 COLO 41
  8. 8 DEL 0 COLO 23
  9. 9 DEL 7 COLO 35
  10. 10 DEL 21 COLO 59

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Delaware wins 12% of them, Colorado 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colorado by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Delaware by 17+1.2%
Delaware by 9–164.0%
Delaware by 1–86.8%
Level after regulation1.9%
Colorado by 1–819.9%
Colorado by 9–1619.1%
Colorado by 17+47.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.8 points to Colorado: the final margin was Colorado by 24, without the luck Colorado by 15.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • A. Mata, 28 yds made · 90% expected
  • N. Reed, 28 yds missed · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Delaware 3 for 31 yards, Colorado 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:05 Illegal Substitution on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% COLO +0.8 pts
Q3 1:32 Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards 0% COLO +0.4 pts
Q4 14:56 Leaping on Delaware, 11 yards 0% COLO +2.6 pts
Q4 10:39 Holding on Colorado, 10 yards 0% DEL +1.6 pts
Q4 10:24 False Start on Colorado, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.8 pts
Q4 5:13 Face Mask on Colorado, 15 yards 0% DEL +1.6 pts

When it happened

Colorado’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Colorado was ahead in it, below while Delaware was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:27 Delaware converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% DEL DEL: Punt
2 Q1 11:46 Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +1% COLO DEL: Punt
3 Q1 8:21 Colorado converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +1% COLO COLO: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:07 Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +1% COLO DEL: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 2:02 Delaware was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +1% COLO DEL: Punt
6 Q2 0:27 Colorado converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +1% COLO COLO: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:46 Colorado converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +1% COLO COLO: Punt
8 Q3 7:54 Delaware was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +1% COLO DEL: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Delaware 0% · Colorado 100%

Final margin
Colorado by 24
Luck in points
8.8 for Colorado
Luck-adjusted margin
Colorado by 15.2
Replay with same day's form
Delaware 12% · Colorado 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Delaware · Colorado

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