luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Arizona State at Mississippi State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Mississippi State beat Arizona State 24–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Mississippi State wins 5 of 10.

Before kickoff Arizona State was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:30 left): Mississippi State converted 3rd & 9, worth 22 points of win probability to Mississippi State.

Final

Arizona State Sun Devils 20
Mississippi State Bulldogs 24

September 6, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium · Closing line: Arizona State −5.5

Luck index +53 Mississippi State lucky · −53 Arizona State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arizona State wins 5, Mississippi State wins 5.

  1. 1 ASU 34 MSST 7
  2. 2 ASU 24 MSST 7
  3. 3 ASU 25 MSST 13
  4. 4 ASU 14 MSST 7
  5. 5 ASU 23 MSST 20
  6. 6 ASU 25 MSST 27
  7. 7 ASU 3 MSST 9
  8. 8 ASU 6 MSST 17
  9. 9 ASU 24 MSST 41
  10. 10 ASU 7 MSST 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arizona State wins 53% of them, Mississippi State 47%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Mississippi State by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arizona State by 17+15.8%
Arizona State by 9–1618.2%
Arizona State by 1–819.2%
Level after regulation1.9%
Mississippi State by 1–822.4%
Mississippi State by 9–1612.3%
Mississippi State by 17+10.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to Arizona State: the final margin was Mississippi State by 4, without the luck Mississippi State by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Ferrie, 37 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Gomez, 51 yds made · 52% expected
  • J. Gomez, 18 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arizona State 8 for 49 yards, Mississippi State 6 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:45 Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSST +0.7 pts
Q1 1:22 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ASU +1.0 pts
Q1 1:10 Holding on Arizona State, 7 yards +2% MSST +1.0 pts
Q2 14:18 Pass Interference on Arizona State, 15 yards +5% MSST +2.1 pts
Q2 13:15 Delay of Game on Arizona State, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.1 pts
Q2 4:07 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +3% ASU +1.9 pts
Q2 1:08 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +1% ASU +0.5 pts
Q2 0:53 Offside on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.2 pts
Q2 0:07 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MSST +0.1 pts
Q2 0:01 Roughing the Passer on Mississippi State, 15 yards +2% ASU +1.2 pts
Q3 3:58 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ASU +1.5 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MSST +0.4 pts
Q4 4:10 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MSST +0.9 pts
Q4 0:21 Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards +8% ASU +1.9 pts

When it happened

Mississippi State’s chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Mississippi State was ahead in it, below while Arizona State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:21 Mississippi State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +6% ASU MSST: Punt
2 Q3 3:26 Mississippi State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% ASU MSST: Punt
3 Q4 6:47 Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +7% MSST ASU: Field goal
4 Q4 5:48 Arizona State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +8% ASU ASU: Field goal
5 Q4 4:10 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% MSST MSST: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:39 Arizona State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +13% ASU ASU: Field goal
7 Q4 0:30 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +22% MSST MSST: End of game
8 Q4 0:21 Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% ASU –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arizona State 21% · Mississippi State 79%

Final margin
Mississippi State by 4
Luck in points
1.0 for Arizona State
Luck-adjusted margin
Mississippi State by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Arizona State 53% · Mississippi State 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Arizona State · Mississippi State

More from Week 2 2025

Every week 2 game, 2025