Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Ole Miss at Kentucky, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Ole Miss beat Kentucky 30–23, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:17 left): Kentucky converted 4th & 4, worth 11 points of win probability to Kentucky.
Final
 Ole Miss Rebels | 30 |
|---|---|
 Kentucky Wildcats | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Ole Miss about even · −22 Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ole Miss wins 8, Kentucky wins 2.
- 1 MISS 48 UK 10
- 2 MISS 43 UK 13
- 3 MISS 44 UK 21
- 4 MISS 31 UK 13
- 5 MISS 27 UK 13
- 6 MISS 34 UK 24
- 7 MISS 30 UK 23
- 8 MISS 26 UK 23
- 9 MISS 27 UK 31
- 10 MISS 14 UK 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ole Miss wins 78% of them, Kentucky 22%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ole Miss by 17+ | 38.9% |
| Ole Miss by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Ole Miss by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.6% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 11.4% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Kentucky by 17+ | 4.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Carneiro, 51 yds missed · 53% expected
- J. Kauwe, 33 yds made · 83% expected
- J. Kauwe, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- L. Carneiro, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- L. Carneiro, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- L. Carneiro, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Kauwe, 39 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Ole Miss 6 for 105 yards, Kentucky 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:03 | Illegal Formation on Kentucky, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% MISS +3.2 pts |
| Q1 1:00 | Face Mask on Ole Miss, 15 yards | +4% UK +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:50 | Personal Foul on Kentucky, 15 yards | +4% MISS +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:34 | False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UK +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:14 | Roughing the Passer on Ole Miss, 50 yards | +8% UK +3.8 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | Ineligible Downfield on Kentucky, 5 yards | +1% MISS +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:04 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% MISS +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:00 | Illegal Forward Pass on Kentucky, 5 yards | +1% MISS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:05 | Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% UK +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:05 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | +3% MISS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards | +3% UK +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:22 | Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards | 0% UK +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Kentucky’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:52 | L. Carneiro missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +4% UK | MISS: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 9:03 | Illegal Formation on Kentucky, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +6% MISS | MISS: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 1:00 | Face Mask on Ole Miss, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% UK | UK: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 8:14 | Roughing the Passer on Ole Miss, 50 yardsJudgment calls | +8% UK | UK: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 12:51 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +5% UK | UK: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 10:17 | Kentucky converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +11% UK | UK: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 7:50 | Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +4% MISS | UK: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 4:11 | Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +4% MISS | UK: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ole Miss 84% · Kentucky 16%
- Final margin
- Ole Miss by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for Kentucky
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ole Miss by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Ole Miss 78% · Kentucky 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Ole Miss · 
Kentucky
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- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
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- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
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- Austin Peay at Georgia UGA 28–6 · replay 99% for the winner
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