SEC · 2026 season, in progress
Ole Miss Rebels: luck and expected wins
Ole Miss is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.3 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 19th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.
2026, game by game
How often Ole Miss wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Louisville | W 41–38 | 57% | +43 |
| Week 2 | vs Charlotte | W 41–9 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 3 | vs LSU | W 32–24 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 4 | @ Florida | L 28–52 | 7% | −7 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Ole Miss win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Vanderbilt |  Ole Miss by 1.7 | 54% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Missouri | Ole Miss by 7.4 | 68% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Texas |  Texas by 13.1 | 21% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Auburn | Ole Miss by 6.1 | 64% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Georgia |  Georgia by 7.7 | 32% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Oklahoma |  Oklahoma by 1.9 | 46% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Wofford | Ole Miss by 43.5 | 99% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | vs Mississippi State | Ole Miss by 2.6 | 56% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Ole Miss’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.12 | +9.2 |
| Kicks | +0.08 | +3.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.04 | −1.9 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Ole Miss takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 3 | vs Arkansas | W 41–35 | 37% | +63 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Oklahoma | W 34–26 | 38% | +62 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Louisville | W 41–38 | 57% | +43 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs LSU | W 24–19 | 66% | +34 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs LSU | W 32–24 | 69% | +31 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Ole Miss would win most often in a replay.
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11–1 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 5–1 | 2–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Georgia State | W 63–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Kentucky | W 30–23 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 3 | vs Arkansas | W 41–35 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 4 | vs Tulane | W 45–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 5 | vs LSU | W 24–19 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 7 | vs Washington State | W 24–21 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 8 | @ Georgia | L 35–43 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 9 | @ Oklahoma | W 34–26 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 10 | vs South Carolina | W 30–14 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 11 | vs The Citadel | W 49–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 12 | vs Florida | W 34–24 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 14 | @ Mississippi State | W 38–19 | 78% | +22 |
| CFP first round | vs Tulane | W 41–10 | 98% | +2 |
| CFP quarterfinal, Sugar Bowl | vs Georgia | W 39–34 | 71% | +29 |
| CFP semifinal, Fiesta Bowl | vs Miami | L 27–31 | 37% | −37 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- SEC teams by luck
- SEC:
Alabama, 
Arkansas, 
Auburn, 
Florida, Georgia, 
Kentucky, 
LSU, 
Mississippi State, 
Missouri, Oklahoma, 
South Carolina, 
Tennessee, Texas, 
Texas A&M, 
Vanderbilt
How many wins does Ole Miss have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.3 wins.
Was Ole Miss lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.7 wins of luck, the 19th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Ole Miss’s luckiest season?
2025: 11–1 from play worth 8.4 wins, +2.6 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 3–1 from play worth 2.3 (+0.7).