Tulane at Ole Miss, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Tulane Green Wave	10
Ole Miss Rebels	45

September 20, 2025 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · Closing line: Ole Miss −12.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +2 Ole Miss about even · −2 Tulane

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Tulane wins 0, Ole Miss wins 10.

1 TULN 7 MISS 13
2 TULN 10 MISS 21
3 TULN 12 MISS 28
4 TULN 13 MISS 33
5 TULN 17 MISS 41
6 TULN 10 MISS 37
7 TULN 7 MISS 37
8 TULN 3 MISS 38
9 TULN 0 MISS 38
10 TULN 0 MISS 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Tulane wins 2% of them, Ole Miss 98%. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 35.

Actual: Ole Miss by 35 494235282114707142128354249 ← Tulane win by Ole Miss win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Tulane by 17+	0.1%
Tulane by 9–16	0.4%
Tulane by 1–8	1.3%
Level after regulation	0.3%
Ole Miss by 1–8	5.3%
Ole Miss by 9–16	8.8%
Ole Miss by 17+	83.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Kicks +2% MISS

3rd & 4th downs +2% MISS

Pre-snap flags +1% MISS

All luck +5% MISS

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.1 points to Ole Miss: the final margin was Ole Miss by 35, without the luck Ole Miss by 26.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

L. Carneiro, 22 yds made · 94% expected
L. Carneiro, 54 yds made · 48% expected
P. Durkin, 34 yds made · 82% expected
L. Carneiro, 33 yds made · 85% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Tulane 4 for 30 yards, Ole Miss 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 9:58	False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% MISS +0.6 pts
Q1 5:13	False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TULN +0.4 pts
Q1 4:30	Illegal Substitution on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% TULN +0.3 pts
Q2 7:30	False Start on Tulane, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% MISS +0.5 pts
Q4 10:35	Roughing the Passer on Tulane, 15 yards	0% MISS +1.4 pts
Q4 6:03	Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards	0% TULN +2.6 pts
Q4 5:05	Roughing the Passer on Ole Miss, 15 yards	0% TULN +3.8 pts

When it happened

Ole Miss’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Ole Miss 50% Tulane Q1Q2Q3Q4 25678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ole Miss was ahead in it, below while Tulane was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 12:54	Ole Miss converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected	+1% MISS	MISS: Touchdown
2	Q1 12:23	Ole Miss converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected	+3% MISS	MISS: Field goal
3	Q1 11:21	Tulane converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected	+2% TULN	TULN: Punt
4	Q1 10:00	Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected	+1% MISS	TULN: Punt
5	Q1 5:29	Ole Miss converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected	+1% MISS	MISS: Field goal
6	Q1 0:22	Tulane was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected	+1% MISS	TULN: Punt
7	Q2 12:48	L. Carneiro made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 48% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before	+2% MISS	MISS: Touchdown
8	Q2 10:41	Tulane converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected	+2% TULN	TULN: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Tulane · Ole Miss

More from Week 4 2025

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