Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
South Carolina at Missouri, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Missouri beat South Carolina 29–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Missouri wins 9 of 10. South Carolina had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to South Carolina.
Before kickoff Missouri was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:17 left): R. Meyer made a 22-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to South Carolina.
Final
 South Carolina Gamecocks | 20 |
|---|---|
 Missouri Tigers | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Missouri about even · −8 South Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Carolina wins 1, Missouri wins 9.
- 1 SC 21 MIZ 17
- 2 SC 17 MIZ 20
- 3 SC 10 MIZ 17
- 4 SC 27 MIZ 38
- 5 SC 10 MIZ 24
- 6 SC 14 MIZ 31
- 7 SC 14 MIZ 34
- 8 SC 13 MIZ 38
- 9 SC 0 MIZ 30
- 10 SC 14 MIZ 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Carolina wins 8% of them, Missouri 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Carolina by 17+ | 0.7% |
| South Carolina by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| South Carolina by 1–8 | 5.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Missouri by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Missouri by 9–16 | 18.0% |
| Missouri by 17+ | 55.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Meyer, 23 yds made · 92% expected
- R. Meyer, 22 yds made · 92% expected
- W. Joyce, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- W. Joyce, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- R. Meyer, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: South Carolina 13 for 93 yards, Missouri 5 for 54 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:19 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:46 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +4% SC +2.2 pts |
| Q1 5:27 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 14 yards | +5% SC +2.8 pts |
| Q1 2:28 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | +2% MIZ +1.3 pts |
| Q2 12:53 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:06 | Offside on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q2 7:19 | Face Mask on South Carolina, 8 yards | +2% MIZ +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:07 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q2 4:06 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.1 pts |
| Q2 3:38 | Penalty on Missouri, 15 yards | +2% SC +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:00 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards | +2% MIZ +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:30 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIZ +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:27 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% MIZ +1.8 pts |
| Q4 13:55 | False Start on Missouri, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SC +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:07 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yards | +2% SC +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:14 | Face Mask on South Carolina, 15 yards | +3% MIZ +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:17 | Ineligible Downfield on South Carolina, 5 yards | 0% MIZ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:52 | False Start on South Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIZ +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Missouri’s chance of winning
As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:46 | Holding on Missouri, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% SC | SC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:27 | Pass Interference on Missouri, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +5% SC | SC: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 14:24 | Missouri converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedMissouri missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time | +5% SC | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 11:26 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +5% SC | SC: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:17 | Missouri was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedR. Meyer made a 22-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him | +9% SC | MIZ: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 4:43 | South Carolina converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% SC | SC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 1:27 | Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% MIZ | MIZ: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 9:32 | Missouri’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% MIZ | MIZ: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Carolina 15% · Missouri 85%
- Final margin
- Missouri by 9
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for Missouri
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri by 5.4
- Replay with same day's form
- South Carolina 8% · Missouri 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
South Carolina · 
Missouri
More from Week 4 2025
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Auburn at Oklahoma OU 24–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Florida at Miami MIA 26–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Tulane at Ole Miss MISS 45–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- SE Louisiana at LSU LSU 56–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- UAB at Tennessee TENN 56–24 · replay 100% for the winner
- Georgia State at Vanderbilt VAN 70–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Texas TEX 55–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner