luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

UAB at Tennessee, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Tennessee beat UAB 56–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tennessee wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Tennessee was a 99% favorite.

Final

UAB Blazers 24
Tennessee Volunteers 56

September 20, 2025 · Neyland Stadium · Closing line: Tennessee −39.5

Luck index 0 Tennessee about even · 0 UAB

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UAB wins 0, Tennessee wins 10.

  1. 1 UAB 28 TENN 44
  2. 2 UAB 34 TENN 61
  3. 3 UAB 14 TENN 45
  4. 4 UAB 21 TENN 56
  5. 5 UAB 13 TENN 51
  6. 6 UAB 14 TENN 56
  7. 7 UAB 17 TENN 65
  8. 8 UAB 21 TENN 73
  9. 9 UAB 10 TENN 66
  10. 10 UAB 6 TENN 72

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UAB wins 0% of them, Tennessee 100%. The line is what actually happened: Tennessee by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UAB by 17+0.0%
UAB by 9–160.0%
UAB by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Tennessee by 1–80.3%
Tennessee by 9–160.8%
Tennessee by 17+98.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to Tennessee: the final margin was Tennessee by 32, without the luck Tennessee by 28.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: UAB 11 for 80 yards, Tennessee 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:55 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards 0% UAB +0.8 pts
Q1 3:53 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UAB, 15 yards 0% UAB +1.8 pts
Q1 3:53 Holding on UAB, 8 yards 0% TENN +0.5 pts
Q1 1:50 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.7 pts
Q1 1:34 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.6 pts
Q2 9:45 False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.7 pts
Q2 7:29 Illegal Shift on Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UAB +0.6 pts
Q2 0:53 Face Mask on UAB, 12 yards 0% TENN +1.2 pts
Q2 0:35 Pass Interference on UAB, 10 yards 0% TENN +2.4 pts
Q3 2:51 Delay of Game on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.4 pts
Q3 0:48 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yards 0% UAB +0.4 pts
Q4 13:48 Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +2.3 pts
Q4 11:01 Illegal Formation on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +1.0 pts
Q4 8:09 Offside on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TENN +0.6 pts

When it happened

Tennessee’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Tennessee was ahead in it, below while UAB was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:55 Holding on Tennessee, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% UAB UAB: Punt
2 Q1 11:37 UAB was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% TENN UAB: Punt
3 Q1 9:14 UAB was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +0% TENN UAB: Punt
4 Q1 7:44 Tennessee converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +0% TENN TENN: Turnover
5 Q1 6:42 Tennessee converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +0% TENN TENN: Turnover
6 Q1 5:39 UAB was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +0% TENN UAB: Punt
7 Q1 3:53 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UAB, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on UAB, 8 yardsJudgment calls +0% UAB TENN: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:01 Illegal Formation on UAB, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% TENN TENN: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UAB 0% · Tennessee 100%

Final margin
Tennessee by 32
Luck in points
3.4 for Tennessee
Luck-adjusted margin
Tennessee by 28.6
Replay with same day's form
UAB 0% · Tennessee 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · UAB · Tennessee

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