luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

SE Louisiana at LSU, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

LSU beat SE Louisiana 56–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, LSU wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff LSU was a 100% favorite.

Final

SE Louisiana Lions 10
LSU Tigers 56

September 20, 2025 · Tiger Stadium (LA) · Closing line: LSU −48.5

Luck index +1 LSU about even · −1 SE Louisiana

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. SE Louisiana wins 0, LSU wins 10.

  1. 1 SELA 28 LSU 34
  2. 2 SELA 17 LSU 31
  3. 3 SELA 6 LSU 24
  4. 4 SELA 20 LSU 43
  5. 5 SELA 2 LSU 28
  6. 6 SELA 3 LSU 31
  7. 7 SELA 3 LSU 35
  8. 8 SELA 14 LSU 50
  9. 9 SELA 17 LSU 59
  10. 10 SELA 14 LSU 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

SE Louisiana wins 1% of them, LSU 99%. The line is what actually happened: LSU by 46.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
SE Louisiana by 17+0.0%
SE Louisiana by 9–160.2%
SE Louisiana by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
LSU by 1–83.6%
LSU by 9–168.1%
LSU by 17+87.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.0 points to LSU: the final margin was LSU by 46, without the luck LSU by 31. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: SE Louisiana 4 for 40 yards, LSU 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:12 Encroachment on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LSU +1.9 pts
Q1 2:57 Running Into the Kicker on LSU, 5 yards 0% SELA +3.5 pts
Q2 13:08 Unnecessary Roughness on LSU, 15 yards 0% SELA +1.3 pts
Q2 5:46 Pass Interference on SE Louisiana, 15 yards 0% LSU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:24 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SELA +0.6 pts
Q3 4:38 Holding on LSU, 10 yards 0% SELA +1.5 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SELA +0.4 pts
Q4 10:33 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SELA +0.9 pts
Q4 10:13 False Start on LSU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SELA +0.6 pts
Q4 3:12 Holding on SE Louisiana, 10 yards 0% LSU +1.0 pts
Q4 0:00 Holding on SE Louisiana, 10 yards 0% LSU 0.0 pts

When it happened

LSU’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while LSU was ahead in it, below while SE Louisiana was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:12 Encroachment on SE Louisiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% LSU LSU: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:03 SE Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +0% LSU SELA: Punt
3 Q1 10:03 LSU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% LSU LSU: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:25 LSU converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% LSU LSU: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:41 SE Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +0% LSU SELA: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 2:57 Running Into the Kicker on LSU, 5 yardsJudgment calls +0% SELA SELA: Turnover on downs
7 Q1 1:10 SE Louisiana was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +0% LSU SELA: Punt
8 Q2 13:59 LSU converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +0% LSU LSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

SE Louisiana 0% · LSU 100%

Final margin
LSU by 46
Luck in points
15.0 for LSU
Luck-adjusted margin
LSU by 31.0
Replay with same day's form
SE Louisiana 1% · LSU 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · SE Louisiana · LSU

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