luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Georgia State at Vanderbilt, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Vanderbilt beat Georgia State 70–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Vanderbilt wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 96% favorite.

Final

Georgia State Panthers 21
Vanderbilt Commodores 70

September 20, 2025 · FirstBank Stadium · Closing line: Vanderbilt −27.5

Luck index 0 Vanderbilt about even · 0 Georgia State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia State wins 0, Vanderbilt wins 10.

  1. 1 GAST 14 VAN 48
  2. 2 GAST 27 VAN 70
  3. 3 GAST 21 VAN 70
  4. 4 GAST 10 VAN 63
  5. 5 GAST 21 VAN 77
  6. 6 GAST 6 VAN 66
  7. 7 GAST 0 VAN 63
  8. 8 GAST 0 VAN 66
  9. 9 GAST 7 VAN 77
  10. 10 GAST 0 VAN 76

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia State wins 0% of them, Vanderbilt 100%. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia State by 17+0.0%
Georgia State by 9–160.0%
Georgia State by 1–80.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Vanderbilt by 1–80.2%
Vanderbilt by 9–161.8%
Vanderbilt by 17+97.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to Vanderbilt: the final margin was Vanderbilt by 49, without the luck Vanderbilt by 46.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. McAlister, 52 yds made · 51% expected
  • B. McAlister, 49 yds blocked · 57% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia State 16 for 130 yards, Vanderbilt 10 for 99 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Touching on Georgia State, 9 yards, wiping out the play +1% VAN +1.5 pts
Q1 15:00 Illegal Substitution on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GAST +5.2 pts
Q1 15:00 False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +1.0 pts
Q1 10:24 Delay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.8 pts
Q1 5:52 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards 0% GAST +1.1 pts
Q1 1:33 False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 Tripping on Georgia State, 15 yards 0% VAN +1.5 pts
Q2 10:18 Offside on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GAST +4.7 pts
Q2 9:24 Pass Interference on Georgia State, 14 yards 0% VAN +1.6 pts
Q2 1:41 Intentional Grounding on Georgia State, 12 yards 0% VAN +0.6 pts
Q2 1:41 Offside on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GAST +0.3 pts
Q2 1:17 Personal Foul on Georgia State, 10 yards 0% GAST +1.8 pts
Q2 0:24 Roughing the Passer on Georgia State, 15 yards 0% VAN +2.5 pts
Q3 13:27 False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +1.5 pts
Q3 13:27 Illegal Substitution on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.4 pts
Q3 13:27 Illegal Substitution on Vanderbilt, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +3.8 pts
Q3 10:11 Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 15 yards 0% GAST +4.6 pts
Q3 8:38 Face Mask on Vanderbilt, 15 yards 0% GAST +1.8 pts
Q3 8:38 Face Mask on Vanderbilt, 15 yards 0% GAST +2.9 pts
Q3 8:38 Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards 0% VAN +2.1 pts
Q4 12:23 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia State, 0 yards 0% VAN +2.7 pts
Q4 12:23 Holding on Georgia State, 7 yards 0% VAN +1.2 pts
Q4 10:55 Holding on Georgia State, 8 yards 0% VAN +0.5 pts
Q4 10:55 Delay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.4 pts
Q4 2:00 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards 0% GAST +0.6 pts
Q4 2:00 Personal Foul on Vanderbilt, 16 yards 0% GAST +2.7 pts

When it happened

Vanderbilt’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Vanderbilt was ahead in it, below while Georgia State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Georgia State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedGeorgia State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedIllegal Touching on Georgia State, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsIllegal Substitution on Vanderbilt, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% GAST GAST: Field goal
2 Q1 10:24 B. McAlister made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ beforeDelay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% GAST GAST: Punt
3 Q1 5:52 Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedHolding on Vanderbilt, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% GAST GAST: Punt
4 Q1 4:39 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +0% VAN VAN: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:56 Georgia State fumbled and Vanderbilt recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% VAN GAST: End of half
6 Q2 15:00 Georgia State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedGeorgia State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedTripping on Georgia State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% GAST GAST: End of half
7 Q3 10:11 Georgia State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedPersonal Foul on Vanderbilt, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% VAN GAST: Missed field goal
8 Q4 2:26 Georgia State converted 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedGeorgia State’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +1% VAN –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia State 0% · Vanderbilt 100%

Final margin
Vanderbilt by 49
Luck in points
2.5 for Vanderbilt
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 46.5
Replay with same day's form
Georgia State 0% · Vanderbilt 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

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