Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Troy at Buffalo, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Troy beat Buffalo 21–17, but the replays lean toward Buffalo: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to Troy.
Before kickoff Buffalo was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:45 left): Troy converted 3rd & 4, worth 14 points of win probability to Troy.
Final
 Troy Trojans | 21 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bulls | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Troy very lucky · −70 Buffalo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Troy wins 3, Buffalo wins 7.
- 1 TROY 24 BUF 7
- 2 TROY 17 BUF 7
- 3 TROY 21 BUF 17
- 4 TROY 22 BUF 24
- 5 TROY 7 BUF 13
- 6 TROY 14 BUF 22
- 7 TROY 10 BUF 21
- 8 TROY 10 BUF 25
- 9 TROY 0 BUF 20
- 10 TROY 6 BUF 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Troy wins 30% of them, Buffalo 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Troy by 17+ | 4.2% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 7.9% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 16.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.0% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 23.0% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 21.2% |
| Buffalo by 17+ | 23.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Troy 5 for 70 yards, Buffalo 4 for 26 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:32 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:42 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards | +3% BUF +1.9 pts |
| Q2 12:48 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:25 | Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yards | +2% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:27 | Illegal Formation on Buffalo, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.1 pts |
| Q3 13:53 | Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards | +4% TROY +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:22 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yards | +7% BUF +3.7 pts |
| Q3 9:12 | Holding on Troy, 20 yards | +1% BUF +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:24 | False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Buffalo’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:47 | Buffalo converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +5% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:25 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedPass Interference on Troy, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% BUF | TROY: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 12:01 | Troy was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% BUF | TROY: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 9:22 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Troy, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 4:31 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% BUF | TROY: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 1:30 | Troy converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:45 | Troy converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +14% TROY | TROY: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:08 | Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +10% TROY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Troy 48% · Buffalo 52%
- Final margin
- Troy by 4
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Troy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buffalo by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Troy 30% · Buffalo 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Troy · 
Buffalo
More from Week 4 2025
- Ball State at UConn CONN 31–25 · replay 37% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech LT 30–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Marshall at Middle Tennessee MRSH 42–28 · replay 47% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Toledo at Western Michigan WMU 14–13 · replay 71% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Alabama CCU 38–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UTEP ULM 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Mississippi State MSST 38–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Kennesaw State KENN 28–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Ohio OHIO 52–35 · replay 95% for the winner
- Nicholls at Texas State TXST 35–3 · replay 96% for the winner