Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Eastern Michigan beat Louisiana 34–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Eastern Michigan wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.
Before kickoff Louisiana was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:28 left): Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 14, worth 11 points of win probability to Eastern Michigan.
Final
 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 31 |
|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Eastern Michigan lucky · −58 Louisiana
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisiana wins 6, Eastern Michigan wins 4.
- 1 UL 49 EMU 14
- 2 UL 52 EMU 30
- 3 UL 31 EMU 14
- 4 UL 31 EMU 21
- 5 UL 27 EMU 21
- 6 UL 31 EMU 28
- 7 UL 28 EMU 30
- 8 UL 14 EMU 21
- 9 UL 24 EMU 35
- 10 UL 35 EMU 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisiana wins 58% of them, Eastern Michigan 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eastern Michigan by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisiana by 17+ | 20.2% |
| Louisiana by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| Louisiana by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 10.2% |
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sterner, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- T. Sterner, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
- R. Kessinger, 49 yds made · 57% expected
- R. Kessinger, 53 yds missed · 50% expected
- R. Kessinger, 42 yds made · 70% expected
Penalties: Louisiana 9 for 75 yards, Eastern Michigan 7 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:23 | Illegal Formation on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% EMU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 7:26 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% UL +1.9 pts |
| Q1 2:25 | Personal Foul on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | +8% UL +3.9 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | Penalty on Louisiana, 10 yards | +1% EMU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 1:12 | Block Below the Waist on Louisiana, 15 yards | +4% EMU +1.7 pts |
| Q3 14:53 | Illegal Block on Eastern Michigan, 7 yards | +1% UL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 9:04 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% EMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:36 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards | +4% UL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 14:47 | Delay of Game on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% EMU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:27 | False Start on Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% EMU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:07 | Penalty on Louisiana, 10 yards | +2% EMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:05 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards | +2% UL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | Penalty on Louisiana, 10 yards | 0% EMU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:21 | Holding on Louisiana, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% EMU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 1:12 | Roughing the Passer on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% UL +4.3 pts |
| Q4 0:56 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards | +5% UL +1.0 pts |
When it happened
Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:25 | Personal Foul on Eastern Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +8% UL | UL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:42 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +7% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:03 | T. Sterner missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him | +5% EMU | UL: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 5:56 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +11% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:28 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +11% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 10:49 | Eastern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +5% UL | EMU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 8:05 | Louisiana converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +11% UL | UL: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:12 | Roughing the Passer on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% UL | UL: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisiana 77% · Eastern Michigan 23%
- Final margin
- Eastern Michigan by 3
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for Eastern Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana by 4.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisiana 58% · Eastern Michigan 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Louisiana · 
Eastern Michigan
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