Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Kennesaw State beat Arkansas State 28–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Kennesaw State wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Arkansas State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kennesaw State it would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff Arkansas State was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:04 left): Arkansas State converted 4th & 6, worth 16 points of win probability to Kennesaw State.
Final
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 21 |
|---|---|
 Kennesaw State Owls | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Kennesaw State about even · −12 Arkansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas State wins 1, Kennesaw State wins 9.
- 1 ARST 31 KENN 21
- 2 ARST 48 KENN 52
- 3 ARST 22 KENN 31
- 4 ARST 25 KENN 38
- 5 ARST 31 KENN 49
- 6 ARST 27 KENN 49
- 7 ARST 39 KENN 66
- 8 ARST 30 KENN 63
- 9 ARST 16 KENN 57
- 10 ARST 23 KENN 76
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Arkansas State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kennesaw State it would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for Arkansas State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.07 | worse by 0.17 |
| Arkansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.11 | better by 0.14 |
| Kennesaw State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | −0.08 | better by 0.04 |
| Kennesaw State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.03 | better by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas State wins 12% of them, Kennesaw State 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 2.5% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 5.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 64.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Arkansas State 5 for 29 yards, Kennesaw State 9 for 58 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:07 | Personal Foul on Kennesaw State, 5 yards | +1% ARST +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:58 | Offside on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% KENN +4.1 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:08 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:02 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 0 yards | +11% KENN +3.6 pts |
| Q3 12:03 | Personal Foul on Arkansas State, 9 yards | +2% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% KENN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 13:38 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 13 yards | +3% ARST +1.5 pts |
| Q4 12:14 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +4% ARST +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:10 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% KENN +5.7 pts |
| Q4 8:08 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:44 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 0 yards | 0% ARST 0.0 pts |
| Q4 1:24 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST 0.0 pts |
| Q4 1:23 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 0 yards | +3% ARST +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Kennesaw State’s chance of winning
As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:04 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% KENN | KENN: End of half |
| 2 | Q2 5:58 | Offside on Kennesaw State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% KENN | ARST: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 12:59 | Kennesaw State fumbled and Arkansas State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ARST | KENN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 9:00 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:14 | Pass Interference on Kennesaw State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ARST | ARST: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 10:10 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% KENN | KENN: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 10:04 | Arkansas State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +16% KENN | ARST: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 6:17 | Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% ARST | ARST: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas State 71% · Kennesaw State 29%
- Final margin
- Kennesaw State by 7
- Luck in points
- 12.7 for Kennesaw State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arkansas State by 5.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas State 12% · Kennesaw State 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Arkansas State · 
Kennesaw State
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