luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Delaware at Florida International, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Delaware beat Florida International 38–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Delaware wins 8 of 10.

An off day for Florida International: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Delaware it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff Florida International was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:37 left): Return touchdown by Delaware, worth 12 points of win probability to Delaware.

Final

Delaware Blue Hens 38
Florida International Panthers 16

September 20, 2025 · Pitbull Stadium · Closing line: Florida International −4

Luck index +15 Delaware about even · −15 Florida International

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Delaware wins 8, Florida International wins 2.

  1. 1 DEL 35 FIU 0
  2. 2 DEL 27 FIU 0
  3. 3 DEL 37 FIU 14
  4. 4 DEL 35 FIU 17
  5. 5 DEL 31 FIU 17
  6. 6 DEL 24 FIU 14
  7. 7 DEL 28 FIU 21
  8. 8 DEL 27 FIU 24
  9. 9 DEL 21 FIU 24
  10. 10 DEL 17 FIU 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Florida International

Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Delaware it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

40 points apart for Florida International: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Delaware offenseEPA per play gained +0.20 +0.18 better by 0.02
Delaware defenseEPA per play allowed +0.12 +0.12 better by 0.00
Florida International offenseEPA per play gained +0.12 +0.06 better by 0.06
Florida International defenseEPA per play allowed +0.20 −0.01 worse by 0.21

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Delaware wins 85% of them, Florida International 15%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Delaware by 17+38.9%
Delaware by 9–1620.8%
Delaware by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation5.7%
Florida International by 1–89.5%
Florida International by 9–164.0%
Florida International by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to Delaware: the final margin was Delaware by 22, without the luck Delaware by 14.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Reed, 24 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Czeremcha, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
  • R. Czeremcha, 35 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Delaware 2 for 10 yards, Florida International 7 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:25 Holding on Florida International, 10 yards +2% DEL +0.8 pts
Q2 9:04 False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEL +0.6 pts
Q2 8:26 Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEL +0.5 pts
Q2 7:17 Face Mask on Florida International, 15 yards +5% DEL +2.0 pts
Q2 4:31 Pass Interference on Florida International, 13 yards +5% DEL +2.1 pts
Q2 2:04 Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% FIU +0.6 pts
Q3 2:47 Ineligible Downfield on Delaware, 5 yards 0% FIU +0.6 pts
Q3 2:47 Pass Interference on Florida International, 15 yards +1% DEL +2.5 pts
Q3 2:47 False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FIU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Florida International’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida International was ahead in it, below while Delaware was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:40 Delaware converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% DEL DEL: Field goal
2 Q1 2:25 Delaware converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% DEL DEL: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 14:56 Delaware was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% FIU DEL: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:28 Florida International converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% FIU FIU: Punt
5 Q2 7:17 Face Mask on Florida International, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% DEL DEL: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:31 Pass Interference on Florida International, 13 yardsJudgment calls +5% DEL DEL: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:37 Return touchdown by DelawareSpecial teams +12% DEL DEL: Turnover
8 Q3 11:17 Florida International converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% FIU FIU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Delaware 99% · Florida International 1%

Final margin
Delaware by 22
Luck in points
7.2 for Delaware
Luck-adjusted margin
Delaware by 14.8
Replay with same day's form
Delaware 85% · Florida International 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Delaware · Florida International

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