luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Murray State at Jacksonville State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Jacksonville State beat Murray State 45–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Jacksonville State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Jacksonville State was a 99% favorite.

Final

Murray State Racers 10
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 45

September 20, 2025 · AmFirst Stadium · Closing line: Jacksonville State −35.5

Luck index +1 Jacksonville State about even · −1 Murray State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Murray State wins 0, Jacksonville State wins 10.

  1. 1 MUR 27 JXST 37
  2. 2 MUR 27 JXST 45
  3. 3 MUR 22 JXST 45
  4. 4 MUR 21 JXST 49
  5. 5 MUR 24 JXST 55
  6. 6 MUR 3 JXST 38
  7. 7 MUR 17 JXST 56
  8. 8 MUR 23 JXST 66
  9. 9 MUR 7 JXST 56
  10. 10 MUR 16 JXST 72

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Murray State wins 1% of them, Jacksonville State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Murray State by 17+0.0%
Murray State by 9–160.1%
Murray State by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
Jacksonville State by 1–83.3%
Jacksonville State by 9–164.8%
Jacksonville State by 17+91.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

No play in this game swung win probability by luck.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to Jacksonville State: the final margin was Jacksonville State by 35, without the luck Jacksonville State by 28.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Tannehill, 43 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Rippa, 27 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Murray State 8 for 51 yards, Jacksonville State 5 for 68 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:27 Offside on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.9 pts
Q1 4:57 Penalty on Jacksonville State, 15 yards +1% MUR +1.6 pts
Q1 1:25 Intentional Grounding on Murray State, 6 yards 0% JXST +1.8 pts
Q2 9:18 False Start on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.8 pts
Q2 8:59 Penalty on Jacksonville State, 15 yards 0% MUR +1.8 pts
Q2 0:13 Offside on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.5 pts
Q3 14:49 Penalty on Jacksonville State, 15 yards 0% MUR +1.7 pts
Q3 12:30 Holding on Murray State, 10 yards 0% JXST +0.1 pts
Q3 11:17 Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 13 yards 0% MUR +0.9 pts
Q3 6:15 Penalty on Jacksonville State, 10 yards 0% MUR +0.6 pts
Q3 4:46 False Start on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.4 pts
Q4 14:54 Holding on Murray State, 10 yards 0% JXST +1.3 pts
Q4 5:35 False Start on Murray State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JXST +0.5 pts

When it happened

Jacksonville State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Jacksonville State was ahead in it, below while Murray State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:41 Jacksonville State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +0% MUR JXST: Punt
2 Q1 4:57 Penalty on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% MUR MUR: Field goal
3 Q2 8:59 Penalty on Jacksonville State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% MUR MUR: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 7:59 Murray State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +0% MUR MUR: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 6:32 Murray State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +0% JXST MUR: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 5:56 Murray State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +0% JXST MUR: Turnover
7 Q3 9:46 Jacksonville State fumbled and Murray State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Murray StateSpecial teams +1% MUR JXST: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:54 Holding on Murray State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +0% JXST JXST: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Murray State 0% · Jacksonville State 100%

Final margin
Jacksonville State by 35
Luck in points
6.3 for Jacksonville State
Luck-adjusted margin
Jacksonville State by 28.7
Replay with same day's form
Murray State 1% · Jacksonville State 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Murray State · Jacksonville State

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