Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Marshall at Middle Tennessee, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Marshall beat Middle Tennessee 42–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Marshall wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Marshall.
Before kickoff Marshall was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:02 left): Personal Foul on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to Marshall.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Marshall lucky · −53 Middle Tennessee
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Marshall wins 5, Middle Tennessee wins 5.
- 1 MRSH 55 MTSU 28
- 2 MRSH 31 MTSU 14
- 3 MRSH 30 MTSU 17
- 4 MRSH 28 MTSU 21
- 5 MRSH 31 MTSU 28
- 6 MRSH 24 MTSU 27
- 7 MRSH 24 MTSU 31
- 8 MRSH 24 MTSU 34
- 9 MRSH 17 MTSU 34
- 10 MRSH 13 MTSU 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Marshall wins 47% of them, Middle Tennessee 53%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Marshall by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Marshall by 17+ | 14.1% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 14.4% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Middle Tennessee by 1–8 | 19.9% |
| Middle Tennessee by 9–16 | 16.4% |
| Middle Tennessee by 17+ | 15.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Hathaway, 50 yds made · 53% expected
- J. Hathaway, 38 yds made · 76% expected
Penalties: Marshall 7 for 62 yards, Middle Tennessee 10 for 91 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:29 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MTSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 13:01 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MTSU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 12:54 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +3% MRSH +1.7 pts |
| Q1 3:35 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MTSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:26 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 4 yards | +4% MRSH +2.0 pts |
| Q2 4:01 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +2% MRSH +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:38 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% MRSH +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:28 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +1% MTSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:16 | False Start on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:52 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 15 yards | +4% MTSU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 2:02 | Personal Foul on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards | +14% MRSH +4.1 pts |
| Q3 0:11 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 12 yards | +7% MRSH +1.7 pts |
| Q4 14:45 | Illegal Shift on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MRSH +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:46 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% MRSH +2.1 pts |
| Q4 11:42 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | 0% MTSU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 10:03 | Penalty on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards | +3% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:51 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 12 yards | +4% MTSU +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Middle Tennessee’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 3:17 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% MTSU | MTSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 13:52 | Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% MTSU | MTSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 10:28 | Marshall fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MRSH | MRSH: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 2:47 | Marshall fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:02 | Personal Foul on Middle Tennessee, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +14% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 0:11 | Pass Interference on Middle Tennessee, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +6% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 13:46 | Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:48 | Marshall converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% MRSH | MRSH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Marshall 88% · Middle Tennessee 12%
- Final margin
- Marshall by 14
- Luck in points
- 6.4 for Marshall
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Marshall by 7.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Marshall 47% · Middle Tennessee 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Marshall · 
Middle Tennessee
More from Week 4 2025
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Louisiana at Eastern Michigan EMU 34–31 · replay 42% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech LT 30–20 · replay 45% for the winner
- Nevada at Western Kentucky WKU 31–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Alabama CCU 38–20 · replay 74% for the winner
- UL Monroe at UTEP ULM 31–25 · replay 84% for the winner
- Delaware at Florida International DEL 38–16 · replay 85% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Kennesaw State KENN 28–21 · replay 88% for the winner
- UT Martin at Missouri State MOST 42–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Nicholls at Texas State TXST 35–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- James Madison at Liberty JMU 31–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Maine at Georgia Southern GASO 45–17 · replay 98% for the winner