luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2026 college football season · September 17, 2026–September 19, 2026

Week 3 2026: upsets, and who deserved to win

9 upsets in Week 3 2026. The biggest: Kentucky beat Texas A&M 31–21 as 14% underdogs, and deserved it. 7 of 75 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Arizona State beat Kansas 24–17 in a game it wins 8% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 3 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 6 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Kentucky 31–21 @ Texas A&M 14% 79% Deserved
West Virginia 38–27 vs Virginia 25% 93% Deserved
SE Louisiana 38–35 @ UL Monroe 27% 28% Lucky
Middle Tennessee 27–20 vs Nevada 41% 84% Deserved
Ole Miss 32–24 vs LSU 42% 69% Deserved
Mississippi State 41–34 @ South Carolina 42% 73% Deserved
James Madison 26–13 @ San Diego State 42% 40% Lucky
East Carolina 20–17 @ Old Dominion 44% 54% Coin flip
Central Michigan 24–10 vs Wyoming 46% 96% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 3 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Arizona State W 24–17 vs Kansas 8% +92
2 Marshall W 30–24 @ Missouri State 22% +78
3 USC W 42–35 @ Rutgers 25% +75
4 Florida Atlantic W 16–10 vs Florida International 31% +69
5 Western Michigan W 28–21 @ Rice 36% +64
6 James Madison W 26–13 @ San Diego State 40% +60
7 Virginia Tech W 35–26 @ Maryland 47% +53
8 Fresno State W 26–10 @ San José State 48% +52
9 Cincinnati W 35–31 vs Miami (OH) 48% +52
10 East Carolina W 20–17 @ Old Dominion 54% +46
11 South Alabama W 41–36 vs Ohio 62% +38
12 Northwestern W 41–7 vs Colorado 65% +35
13 Jacksonville State W 31–27 vs Georgia Southern 67% +33
14 Louisville W 41–31 vs SMU 69% +31
15 Ole Miss W 32–24 vs LSU 69% +31
16 Clemson W 28–20 vs North Carolina 70% +30
17 Delaware W 22–14 vs Coastal Carolina 72% +28
18 Texas Tech W 28–26 vs Houston 73% +27
19 Mississippi State W 41–34 @ South Carolina 73% +27
20 Florida W 44–39 @ Auburn 73% +27
21 Louisiana W 21–14 vs UAB 74% +26
22 Vanderbilt W 35–31 vs NC State 77% +23
23 Alabama W 50–36 vs Florida State 77% +23
24 UCF W 44–30 vs Georgia State 78% +22
25 UCLA W 52–38 vs Purdue 79% +21
26 Kentucky W 31–21 @ Texas A&M 79% +21
27 North Dakota State W 31–10 @ Sacramento State 80% +20
28 Miami W 33–20 @ Wake Forest 83% +17
29 App State W 26–21 vs Charlotte 83% +17
30 Baylor W 36–19 vs Louisiana Tech 83% +17
31 Middle Tennessee W 27–20 vs Nevada 84% +16
32 Toledo W 49–48 vs Temple 86% +14
33 Arizona W 42–17 vs Northern Illinois 86% +14
34 Pittsburgh W 27–13 vs Syracuse 88% +12
35 Kansas State W 31–20 vs Tulane 88% +12
36 Boston College W 22–16 vs Maine 90% +10
37 Missouri W 27–17 vs Troy 90% +10
38 Texas State W 49–35 vs North Texas 92% +8
39 West Virginia W 38–27 vs Virginia 93% +7
40 South Florida W 59–17 vs Delaware State 95% +5
41 Oklahoma W 14–6 vs New Mexico 96% +4
42 Central Michigan W 24–10 vs Wyoming 96% +4
43 Notre Dame W 27–10 vs Michigan State 96% +4
44 TCU W 31–7 vs Arkansas State 96% +4
45 Georgia W 45–17 @ Arkansas 97% +3
46 Boise State W 38–24 vs South Dakota 97% +3
47 Massachusetts W 36–14 vs Stonehill 97% +3
48 Georgia Tech W 44–11 vs Mercer 98% +2
49 Wisconsin W 54–10 vs Eastern Michigan 98% +2
50 Tulsa W 42–0 vs East Texas A&M 99% +1
51 Oregon State W 52–17 vs Montana 99% +1
52 Duke W 35–7 vs Stanford 99% +1
53 Tennessee W 42–9 vs Kennesaw State 99% +1
54 Texas W 30–6 vs UTSA 99% +1
55 UConn W 48–20 @ Southern Miss 99% +1
56 Liberty W 51–15 vs Ball State 100% 0
57 Utah W 33–0 vs Utah State 100% 0
58 Minnesota W 41–7 vs Akron 100% 0
59 Nebraska W 34–7 vs North Dakota 100% 0
60 Memphis W 45–21 vs UT Martin 100% 0
61 Washington W 48–16 vs Eastern Washington 100% 0
62 Washington State W 48–7 vs Duquesne 100% 0
63 BYU W 41–23 @ Colorado State 100% 0
64 Michigan W 52–17 vs UTEP 100% 0
65 Oregon W 84–0 vs Portland State 100% 0
66 Iowa State W 55–7 vs Bowling Green 100% 0
67 Ohio State W 59–3 vs Kent State 100% 0
68 Penn State W 55–13 vs Buffalo 100% 0
69 Illinois W 48–10 vs Southern Illinois 100% 0
70 California W 49–7 vs Wagner 100% 0
71 Indiana W 38–0 vs Western Kentucky 100% 0
72 Iowa W 55–0 vs Northern Iowa 100% 0
73 Oklahoma State W 59–0 vs Murray State 100% 0
74 Sam Houston W 59–0 vs Nicholls 100% 0
75 Bowling Green L 7–55 @ Iowa State 0% 0
76 Kent State L 3–59 @ Ohio State 0% 0
77 Buffalo L 13–55 @ Penn State 0% 0
78 Western Kentucky L 0–38 @ Indiana 0% 0
79 UTEP L 17–52 @ Michigan 0% 0
80 Colorado State L 23–41 vs BYU 0% 0
81 Akron L 7–41 @ Minnesota 0% 0
82 Utah State L 0–33 @ Utah 0% 0
83 Ball State L 15–51 @ Liberty 0% 0
84 Southern Miss L 20–48 vs UConn 1% −1
85 UTSA L 6–30 @ Texas 1% −1
86 Kennesaw State L 9–42 @ Tennessee 1% −1
87 Stanford L 7–35 @ Duke 1% −1
88 Eastern Michigan L 10–54 @ Wisconsin 2% −2
89 Arkansas L 17–45 vs Georgia 3% −3
90 Arkansas State L 7–31 @ TCU 4% −4
91 Michigan State L 10–27 @ Notre Dame 4% −4
92 Wyoming L 10–24 @ Central Michigan 4% −4
93 New Mexico L 6–14 @ Oklahoma 4% −4
94 Virginia L 27–38 vs West Virginia 7% −7
95 North Texas L 35–49 @ Texas State 8% −8
96 Troy L 17–27 @ Missouri 10% −10
97 Tulane L 20–31 @ Kansas State 12% −12
98 Syracuse L 13–27 @ Pittsburgh 12% −12
99 Northern Illinois L 17–42 @ Arizona 14% −14
100 Temple L 48–49 @ Toledo 14% −14
101 Nevada L 20–27 @ Middle Tennessee 16% −16
102 Louisiana Tech L 19–36 @ Baylor 17% −17
103 Charlotte L 21–26 @ App State 17% −17
104 Wake Forest L 20–33 vs Miami 17% −17
105 Sacramento State L 10–31 vs North Dakota State 20% −20
106 Texas A&M L 21–31 vs Kentucky 21% −21
107 Purdue L 38–52 @ UCLA 21% −21
108 Georgia State L 30–44 @ UCF 22% −22
109 Florida State L 36–50 @ Alabama 23% −23
110 NC State L 31–35 @ Vanderbilt 23% −23
111 UAB L 14–21 @ Louisiana 26% −26
112 Auburn L 39–44 vs Florida 27% −27
113 South Carolina L 34–41 vs Mississippi State 27% −27
114 Houston L 26–28 @ Texas Tech 27% −27
115 Coastal Carolina L 14–22 @ Delaware 28% −28
116 North Carolina L 20–28 @ Clemson 30% −30
117 LSU L 24–32 @ Ole Miss 31% −31
118 SMU L 31–41 @ Louisville 31% −31
119 Georgia Southern L 27–31 @ Jacksonville State 33% −33
120 Colorado L 7–41 @ Northwestern 35% −35
121 Ohio L 36–41 @ South Alabama 38% −38
122 Old Dominion L 17–20 vs East Carolina 46% −46
123 Miami (OH) L 31–35 @ Cincinnati 52% −52
124 San José State L 10–26 vs Fresno State 52% −52
125 Maryland L 26–35 vs Virginia Tech 53% −53
126 San Diego State L 13–26 vs James Madison 60% −60
127 Rice L 21–28 vs Western Michigan 64% −64
128 Florida International L 10–16 @ Florida Atlantic 69% −69
129 UL Monroe L 35–38 vs SE Louisiana 72% −72
130 Rutgers L 35–42 vs USC 75% −75
131 Missouri State L 24–30 vs Marshall 78% −78
132 Kansas L 17–24 vs Arizona State 92% −92