Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Buffalo at Penn State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Penn State beat Buffalo 55–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Penn State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Penn State was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Buffalo Bulls | 13 |
|---|---|
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Penn State about even · 0 Buffalo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buffalo wins 0, Penn State wins 10.
- 1 BUF 14 PSU 38
- 2 BUF 17 PSU 52
- 3 BUF 0 PSU 40
- 4 BUF 0 PSU 45
- 5 BUF 3 PSU 52
- 6 BUF 14 PSU 66
- 7 BUF 3 PSU 59
- 8 BUF 3 PSU 63
- 9 BUF 7 PSU 73
- 10 BUF 0 PSU 76
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buffalo wins 0% of them, Penn State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buffalo by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Buffalo by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Buffalo by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 0.6% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Penn State by 17+ | 97.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Barker, 48 yds made · 61% expected
- O. Hautanen, 21 yds made · 94% expected
- R. Barker, 25 yds made · 95% expected
- O. Hautanen, 38 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Buffalo 3 for 40 yards, Penn State 8 for 96 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:33 | Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards | 0% PSU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:53 | Holding on Penn State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BUF +3.5 pts |
| Q1 3:57 | Illegal Use of Hands on Penn State, 15 yards | 0% BUF +1.6 pts |
| Q1 3:52 | Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yards | 0% BUF +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:17 | Illegal Block on Penn State, 10 yards | 0% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:17 | Roughing the Passer on Buffalo, 15 yards | 0% PSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yards | 0% BUF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Intentional Grounding on Buffalo, 10 yards | 0% PSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:43 | Holding on Penn State, 10 yards | 0% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:05 | Face Mask on Penn State, 3 yards | 0% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:55 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Penn State, 18 yards | 0% BUF +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Penn State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% PSU | BUF: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:31 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% BUF | PSU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 11:53 | Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedR. Barker made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before | +0% PSU | BUF: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 10:33 | Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:18 | Buffalo fumbled and Penn State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% PSU | BUF: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 5:53 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedHolding on Penn State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% BUF | PSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 3:52 | Pass Interference on Penn State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 8 | Q1 1:39 | O. Hautanen made a 21-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +0% PSU | BUF: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buffalo 0% · Penn State 100%
- Final margin
- Penn State by 42
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penn State by 37.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Buffalo 0% · Penn State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Buffalo · 
Penn State
More from Week 3 2026
- USC at Rutgers USC 42–35 · replay 25% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Rice WMU 28–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Purdue at UCLA UCLA 52–38 · replay 79% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Temple at Toledo TOL 49–48 · replay 86% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Michigan State at Notre Dame ND 27–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Stonehill at Massachusetts MASS 36–14 · replay 97% for the winner