luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

North Dakota State at Sacramento State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

North Dakota State beat Sacramento State 31–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, North Dakota State wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff North Dakota State was a 96% favorite.

Final

North Dakota State Bison 31
Sacramento State Hornets 10

September 19, 2026 · Hornet Stadium · Closing line: North Dakota State −26.5

Luck index +20 North Dakota State about even · −20 Sacramento State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Dakota State wins 8, Sacramento State wins 2.

  1. 1 NDSU 31 SAC 0
  2. 2 NDSU 27 SAC 3
  3. 3 NDSU 20 SAC 0
  4. 4 NDSU 17 SAC 0
  5. 5 NDSU 24 SAC 10
  6. 6 NDSU 17 SAC 7
  7. 7 NDSU 27 SAC 20
  8. 8 NDSU 6 SAC 3
  9. 9 NDSU 7 SAC 10
  10. 10 NDSU 0 SAC 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Dakota State wins 80% of them, Sacramento State 20%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Dakota State by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Dakota State by 17+32.8%
North Dakota State by 9–1623.2%
North Dakota State by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation5.3%
Sacramento State by 1–811.8%
Sacramento State by 9–165.3%
Sacramento State by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to North Dakota State: the final margin was North Dakota State by 21, without the luck North Dakota State by 20.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Meadors, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Klein, 29 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Dakota State 4 for 38 yards, Sacramento State 4 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:23 Pass Interference on North Dakota State, 15 yards 0% SAC +1.0 pts
Q2 11:24 Offside on North Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SAC +0.3 pts
Q2 6:56 Offside on North Dakota State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SAC +1.1 pts
Q2 1:54 Chop Block on Sacramento State, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% NDSU +2.6 pts
Q3 1:00 Holding on Sacramento State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NDSU +0.5 pts
Q4 12:00 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Sacramento State, 15 yards +1% NDSU +1.6 pts
Q4 6:38 Roughing the Passer on Sacramento State, 15 yards 0% NDSU +2.0 pts
Q4 1:51 Pass Interference on North Dakota State, 13 yards 0% SAC +2.2 pts

When it happened

Sacramento State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Sacramento State was ahead in it, below while North Dakota State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 North Dakota State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +1% NDSU NDSU: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 12:15 Sacramento State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% SAC SAC: Punt
3 Q1 11:49 Sacramento State fumbled and North Dakota State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by North Dakota StateSpecial teams +2% NDSU SAC: Punt
4 Q1 9:29 North Dakota State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +0% NDSU NDSU: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 7:08 North Dakota State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +0% SAC NDSU: Punt
6 Q1 3:31 North Dakota State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +0% SAC NDSU: Punt
7 Q2 1:54 Chop Block on Sacramento State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% NDSU NDSU: End of half
8 Q4 12:00 D. Klein made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for himUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Sacramento State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +1% NDSU NDSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Dakota State 100% · Sacramento State 0%

Final margin
North Dakota State by 21
Luck in points
0.1 for North Dakota State
Luck-adjusted margin
North Dakota State by 20.9
Replay with same day's form
North Dakota State 80% · Sacramento State 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · North Dakota State · Sacramento State

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