Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Fresno State at San José State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat San José State 26–10, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Fresno State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:57 left): Illegal Formation on San José State, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Final
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 26 |
|---|---|
 San José State Spartans | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Fresno State lucky · −52 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Fresno State wins 5, San José State wins 5.
- 1 FRES 38 SJSU 14
- 2 FRES 27 SJSU 10
- 3 FRES 25 SJSU 13
- 4 FRES 17 SJSU 10
- 5 FRES 13 SJSU 10
- 6 FRES 10 SJSU 13
- 7 FRES 7 SJSU 13
- 8 FRES 16 SJSU 26
- 9 FRES 13 SJSU 27
- 10 FRES 3 SJSU 25
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Fresno State wins 48% of them, San José State 52%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Fresno State by 17+ | 11.7% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| San José State by 17+ | 13.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Sinatra, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- M. Watanabe, 44 yds missed · 65% expected
- M. Watanabe, 52 yds made · 50% expected
- M. Watanabe, 51 yds made · 53% expected
- M. Watanabe, 44 yds made · 66% expected
- M. Watanabe, 40 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Fresno State 10 for 71 yards, San José State 7 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:13 | Illegal Formation on San José State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% FRES +2.0 pts |
| Q2 14:40 | False Start on San José State, 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% FRES +0.5 pts |
| Q2 12:18 | Delay of Game on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:08 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SJSU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 10:57 | Illegal Formation on San José State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +18% FRES +7.0 pts |
| Q2 7:14 | Intentional Grounding on Fresno State, 1 yard | 0% SJSU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 6:30 | Holding on San José State, 8 yards | +2% FRES +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:57 | Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:11 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% FRES +1.2 pts |
| Q3 12:59 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +3% SJSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:59 | Ineligible Downfield on Fresno State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% SJSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:38 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:37 | Illegal Formation on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 6:12 | Personal Foul on Fresno State, 15 yards | +3% SJSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 4:25 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +2% SJSU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 12:30 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +2% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:08 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards | 0% FRES +0.9 pts |
When it happened
San José State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 53%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:36 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% SJSU | FRES: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:57 | Illegal Formation on San José State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +18% FRES | FRES: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 5:40 | San José State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +8% SJSU | SJSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 3:57 | San José State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedDelay of Game on San José State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% FRES | SJSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 3:32 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% FRES | FRES: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:50 | M. Watanabe made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +5% FRES | FRES: End of half |
| 7 | Q4 10:54 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% FRES | FRES: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 8:03 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +12% FRES | FRES: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Fresno State 69% · San José State 31%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 16
- Luck in points
- 9.9 for Fresno State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 6.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Fresno State 48% · San José State 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Fresno State · 
San José State
More from Week 3 2026
- James Madison at San Diego State JMU 26–13 · replay 40% for the winner
- North Dakota State at Sacramento State NDSU 31–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Arizona ARIZ 42–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- North Texas at Texas State TXST 49–35 · replay 92% for the winner
- New Mexico at Oklahoma OU 14–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wyoming at Central Michigan CMU 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- South Dakota at Boise State BOIS 38–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Montana at Oregon State ORST 52–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Utah State at Utah UTAH 33–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duquesne at Washington State WSU 48–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- BYU at Colorado State BYU 41–23 · replay 100% for the winner