luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

BYU at Colorado State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

BYU beat Colorado State 41–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, BYU wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff BYU was an 87% favorite.

Final

BYU Cougars 41
Colorado State Rams 23

September 19, 2026 · Canvas Stadium · Closing line: BYU −17.5

Luck index 0 BYU about even · 0 Colorado State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. BYU wins 10, Colorado State wins 0.

  1. 1 BYU 77 CSU 10
  2. 2 BYU 69 CSU 10
  3. 3 BYU 66 CSU 10
  4. 4 BYU 51 CSU 0
  5. 5 BYU 69 CSU 21
  6. 6 BYU 58 CSU 14
  7. 7 BYU 56 CSU 14
  8. 8 BYU 56 CSU 20
  9. 9 BYU 49 CSU 17
  10. 10 BYU 42 CSU 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

BYU wins 100% of them, Colorado State 0%. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
BYU by 17+97.4%
BYU by 9–161.7%
BYU by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.1%
Colorado State by 1–80.1%
Colorado State by 9–160.0%
Colorado State by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to Colorado State: the final margin was BYU by 18, without the luck BYU by 18.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Dunn, 44 yds made · 64% expected
  • M. Dunn, 26 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: BYU 8 for 74 yards, Colorado State 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:51 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BYU +1.1 pts
Q1 12:31 Personal Foul on BYU, 10 yards +1% CSU +1.3 pts
Q1 12:18 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards 0% BYU +0.6 pts
Q1 8:32 Offside on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CSU +1.5 pts
Q1 5:44 False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BYU +0.2 pts
Q2 7:13 Illegal Formation on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CSU +1.1 pts
Q3 3:53 Holding on BYU, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CSU +2.7 pts
Q3 1:34 Personal Foul on BYU, 15 yards 0% CSU +2.6 pts
Q4 14:21 Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards 0% BYU +2.2 pts
Q4 13:59 Personal Foul on BYU, 14 yards 0% CSU +2.1 pts
Q4 3:35 Holding on BYU, 10 yards 0% CSU +2.0 pts

When it happened

Colorado State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Colorado State was ahead in it, below while BYU was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:51 False Start on Colorado State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% BYU BYU: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:31 Personal Foul on BYU, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% CSU CSU: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:32 Offside on BYU, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% CSU CSU: Punt
4 Q1 7:07 Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +1% BYU CSU: Punt
5 Q1 5:16 BYU was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +1% CSU BYU: Punt
6 Q1 4:10 Colorado State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +1% BYU CSU: Punt
7 Q1 3:03 BYU converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +2% BYU BYU: Touchdown
8 Q2 14:54 Colorado State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +1% CSU CSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

BYU 100% · Colorado State 0%

Final margin
BYU by 18
Luck in points
0.9 for Colorado State
Luck-adjusted margin
BYU by 18.9
Replay with same day's form
BYU 100% · Colorado State 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · BYU · Colorado State

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