Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
West Virginia vs Virginia, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
West Virginia beat Virginia 38–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, West Virginia wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Virginia: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against West Virginia it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff Virginia was a 75% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:13 left): W. Bettridge missed a 39-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to West Virginia.
Final
 West Virginia Mountaineers | 38 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Cavaliers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 West Virginia about even · −7 Virginia
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Virginia wins 9, Virginia wins 1.
- 1 WVU 58 UVA 14
- 2 WVU 34 UVA 0
- 3 WVU 38 UVA 10
- 4 WVU 34 UVA 10
- 5 WVU 34 UVA 13
- 6 WVU 24 UVA 7
- 7 WVU 33 UVA 20
- 8 WVU 26 UVA 17
- 9 WVU 16 UVA 13
- 10 WVU 19 UVA 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Virginia
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against West Virginia it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
60 points apart for Virginia: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia offenseEPA per play gained | +0.33 | −0.01 | better by 0.35 |
| West Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.07 | worse by 0.02 |
| Virginia offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.05 | better by 0.04 |
| Virginia defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.33 | +0.03 | worse by 0.31 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
West Virginia wins 93% of them, Virginia 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: West Virginia by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Virginia by 17+ | 65.5% |
| West Virginia by 9–16 | 15.2% |
| West Virginia by 1–8 | 12.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 3.8% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Virginia by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Bettridge, 39 yds missed · 76% expected
- J. Cassidy, 21 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: West Virginia 6 for 50 yards, Virginia 5 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:42 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UVA +1.7 pts |
| Q1 6:00 | Pass Interference on Virginia, 8 yards | +4% WVU +3.1 pts |
| Q1 1:42 | False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UVA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:49 | Offside on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WVU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:14 | Illegal Formation on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UVA +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:13 | Tripping on West Virginia, 12 yards, wiping out the play | +10% UVA +3.4 pts |
| Q3 3:10 | Illegal Formation on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WVU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 1:50 | Block Below the Waist on Virginia, 15 yards | +6% WVU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 0:50 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | 0% WVU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 0:42 | Targeting on West Virginia, 13 yards | 0% UVA +2.3 pts |
| Q4 0:32 | Pass Interference on West Virginia, 10 yards | 0% UVA +2.0 pts |
When it happened
Virginia’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 9:06 | Virginia converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +13% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 6:13 | Tripping on West Virginia, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% UVA | UVA: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 1:50 | Block Below the Waist on Virginia, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 0:12 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +11% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 14:16 | Virginia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedVirginia fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% UVA | UVA: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 9:47 | Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% WVU | UVA: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 9:13 | W. Bettridge missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him | +13% WVU | UVA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 6:58 | West Virginia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +6% WVU | WVU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Virginia 91% · Virginia 9%
- Final margin
- West Virginia by 11
- Luck in points
- 2.3 for West Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Virginia by 8.7
- Replay with same day's form
- West Virginia 93% · Virginia 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
West Virginia · 
Virginia
More from Week 3 2026
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- SMU at Louisville LOU 41–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- North Carolina at Clemson CLEM 28–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Houston at Texas Tech TTU 28–26 · replay 73% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- Miami at Wake Forest MIA 33–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Baylor BAY 36–19 · replay 83% for the winner