Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
SMU at Louisville, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Louisville beat SMU 41–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisville was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:25 left): SMU was stopped on 4th & 2, worth 13 points of win probability to Louisville.
Final
 SMU Mustangs | 31 |
|---|---|
 Louisville Cardinals | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Louisville lucky · −31 SMU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. SMU wins 3, Louisville wins 7.
- 1 SMU 30 LOU 9
- 2 SMU 24 LOU 14
- 3 SMU 32 LOU 28
- 4 SMU 35 LOU 37
- 5 SMU 28 LOU 33
- 6 SMU 17 LOU 27
- 7 SMU 14 LOU 27
- 8 SMU 20 LOU 38
- 9 SMU 17 LOU 40
- 10 SMU 14 LOU 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
SMU wins 31% of them, Louisville 69%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| SMU by 17+ | 7.4% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 9.3% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| Louisville by 17+ | 30.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Reed, 46 yds made · 59% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: SMU 7 for 67 yards, Louisville 12 for 125 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:20 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +4% LOU +1.7 pts |
| Q1 14:20 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 11 yards | +3% SMU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 10:34 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +0.2 pts |
| Q1 8:33 | Ineligible Downfield on Louisville, 5 yards | +4% SMU +1.9 pts |
| Q1 6:40 | Personal Foul on SMU, 2 yards | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:41 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards | 0% SMU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 3:01 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards | +2% SMU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:40 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 9 yards | +1% SMU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | Delay of Game on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:40 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +2% LOU +1.7 pts |
| Q3 13:46 | Personal Foul on SMU, 15 yards | +4% LOU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:02 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +3% LOU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 9:22 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards | +5% SMU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:16 | Roughing the Passer on SMU, 15 yards | +5% LOU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 14:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on Louisville, 15 yards | +6% SMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:44 | Offside on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SMU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 7:20 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards | +5% SMU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:09 | Illegal Substitution on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:59 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards | +1% SMU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Louisville’s chance of winning
As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:15 | Louisville converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:41 | SMU was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LOU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 14:51 | SMU converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:06 | SMU converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedSMU fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% SMU | SMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 12:28 | SMU converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +6% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:59 | SMU was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +6% LOU | SMU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 7:25 | SMU was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +13% LOU | SMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
SMU 7% · Louisville 93%
- Final margin
- Louisville by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for Louisville
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisville by 8.7
- Replay with same day's form
- SMU 31% · Louisville 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
SMU · 
Louisville
More from Week 3 2026
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- North Carolina at Clemson CLEM 28–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Miami at Wake Forest MIA 33–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Syracuse at Pittsburgh PITT 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Maine at Boston College BC 22–16 · replay 90% for the winner
- West Virginia vs Virginia WVU 38–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Mercer at Georgia Tech GT 44–11 · replay 98% for the winner
- Stanford at Duke DUKE 35–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wagner at California CAL 49–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner