luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

NC State at Vanderbilt, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Vanderbilt beat NC State 35–31, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. NC State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to NC State.

Before kickoff Vanderbilt was a 58% favorite.

Final

NC State Wolfpack 31
Vanderbilt Commodores 35

September 19, 2026 · FirstBank Stadium · Closing line: Vanderbilt −3

Luck index +23 Vanderbilt about even · −23 NC State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. NC State wins 2, Vanderbilt wins 8.

  1. 1 NCSU 26 VAN 12
  2. 2 NCSU 14 VAN 10
  3. 3 NCSU 27 VAN 30
  4. 4 NCSU 31 VAN 36
  5. 5 NCSU 16 VAN 24
  6. 6 NCSU 16 VAN 27
  7. 7 NCSU 27 VAN 42
  8. 8 NCSU 16 VAN 35
  9. 9 NCSU 10 VAN 34
  10. 10 NCSU 17 VAN 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

NC State wins 23% of them, Vanderbilt 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vanderbilt by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
NC State by 17+4.0%
NC State by 9–166.9%
NC State by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Vanderbilt by 1–823.2%
Vanderbilt by 9–1618.7%
Vanderbilt by 17+34.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to Vanderbilt: the final margin was Vanderbilt by 4, without the luck Vanderbilt by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: NC State 6 for 49 yards, Vanderbilt 11 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:21 Ineligible Downfield on Vanderbilt, 5 yards +2% NCSU +1.1 pts
Q1 7:33 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +3% NCSU +1.4 pts
Q1 2:01 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +5% NCSU +3.0 pts
Q2 14:51 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NCSU +0.9 pts
Q2 6:55 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +1% NCSU +0.6 pts
Q2 4:57 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +2% NCSU +1.3 pts
Q2 1:33 Holding on NC State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% VAN +1.0 pts
Q2 1:25 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% VAN +0.2 pts
Q2 1:01 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NCSU +2.1 pts
Q3 14:50 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yards +1% NCSU +0.6 pts
Q3 10:52 Illegal Formation on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NCSU +0.3 pts
Q3 8:03 Face Mask on NC State, 15 yards +2% VAN +1.6 pts
Q4 14:14 Roughing the Passer on NC State, 10 yards +4% VAN +1.1 pts
Q4 14:00 Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 15 yards +6% NCSU +1.7 pts
Q4 7:27 False Start on Vanderbilt, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NCSU +0.6 pts
Q4 2:20 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% VAN +0.7 pts
Q4 0:06 Delay of Game on NC State, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% NCSU +0.4 pts

When it happened

Vanderbilt’s chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Vanderbilt was ahead in it, below while NC State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:01 Holding on Vanderbilt, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% NCSU NCSU: Punt
2 Q2 13:01 Vanderbilt fumbled and NC State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NCSU VAN: Punt
3 Q4 14:52 Vanderbilt converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% VAN VAN: Touchdown
4 Q4 14:00 Pass Interference on Vanderbilt, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% NCSU NCSU: End of game
5 Q4 13:01 NC State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% NCSU NCSU: End of game
6 Q4 11:02 NC State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% NCSU NCSU: End of game
7 Q4 8:02 Vanderbilt converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% VAN VAN: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:27 NC State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +7% NCSU NCSU: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

NC State 32% · Vanderbilt 68%

Final margin
Vanderbilt by 4
Luck in points
1.1 for Vanderbilt
Luck-adjusted margin
Vanderbilt by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
NC State 23% · Vanderbilt 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · NC State · Vanderbilt

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