Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Maine at Boston College, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Boston College beat Maine 22–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boston College wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Boston College was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Maine Black Bears | 16 |
|---|---|
 Boston College Eagles | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Boston College about even · −10 Maine
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maine wins 1, Boston College wins 9.
- 1 ME 34 BC 28
- 2 ME 10 BC 13
- 3 ME 10 BC 16
- 4 ME 21 BC 30
- 5 ME 21 BC 34
- 6 ME 17 BC 34
- 7 ME 14 BC 33
- 8 ME 17 BC 40
- 9 ME 7 BC 33
- 10 ME 7 BC 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maine wins 10% of them, Boston College 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Boston College by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maine by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Maine by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Maine by 1–8 | 6.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 13.9% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Boston College by 17+ | 53.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Tremblay, 27 yds made · 91% expected
- L. Lombardo, 26 yds made · 93% expected
- L. Lombardo, 26 yds made · 93% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Maine 3 for 19 yards, Boston College 5 for 48 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:37 | Offside on Maine, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BC +0.4 pts |
| Q1 6:36 | Roughing the Passer on Maine, 14 yards | 0% BC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 14:54 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yards | 0% ME +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:19 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yards | 0% ME +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Intentional Grounding on Maine, 0 yards | 0% BC 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Unnecessary Roughness on Boston College, 13 yards | 0% ME +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:47 | Holding on Boston College, 10 yards | 0% ME +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:25 | Delay of Game on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ME +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Boston College’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:09 | Boston College was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +0% ME | BC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:31 | Maine was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +0% BC | ME: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:09 | Maine converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on Boston College, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ME | ME: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 6:33 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% ME | BC: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 1:57 | Maine converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% ME | ME: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 14:56 | Maine was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% BC | ME: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 13:43 | Boston College converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +0% BC | BC: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 7:31 | Maine converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +0% ME | ME: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maine 0% · Boston College 100%
- Final margin
- Boston College by 6
- Luck in points
- 9.6 for Maine
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boston College by 15.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Maine 10% · Boston College 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Maine · 
Boston College
More from Week 3 2026
- Virginia Tech at Maryland VT 35–26 · replay 47% for the winner
- SMU at Louisville LOU 41–31 · replay 69% for the winner
- North Carolina at Clemson CLEM 28–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- NC State at Vanderbilt VAN 35–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Florida State at Alabama ALA 50–36 · replay 77% for the winner
- Miami at Wake Forest MIA 33–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Syracuse at Pittsburgh PITT 27–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- West Virginia vs Virginia WVU 38–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Mercer at Georgia Tech GT 44–11 · replay 98% for the winner
- Stanford at Duke DUKE 35–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Wagner at California CAL 49–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Arizona State vs Kansas ASU 24–17 · replay 8% for the winner