Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Arizona State vs Kansas, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Arizona State beat Kansas 24–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Kansas wins 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Arizona State.
Arizona State won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kansas it would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff Arizona State was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:57 left): Return touchdown by Kansas, worth 13 points of win probability to Kansas.
Final
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 24 |
|---|---|
 Kansas Jayhawks | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +92 Arizona State very lucky · −92 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona State wins 1, Kansas wins 9.
- 1 ASU 15 KU 10
- 2 ASU 17 KU 20
- 3 ASU 3 KU 10
- 4 ASU 10 KU 20
- 5 ASU 7 KU 21
- 6 ASU 3 KU 20
- 7 ASU 10 KU 31
- 8 ASU 0 KU 24
- 9 ASU 10 KU 38
- 10 ASU 0 KU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Arizona State won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kansas it would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
54 points apart for Arizona State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.22 | +0.06 | worse by 0.28 |
| Arizona State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.04 | better by 0.13 |
| Kansas offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.11 | worse by 0.21 |
| Kansas defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.22 | +0.14 | better by 0.35 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona State wins 8% of them, Kansas 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona State by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 14.6% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Kansas by 17+ | 57.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Smith, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- M. Connington, 44 yds missed · 64% expected
- M. Connington, 46 yds made · 60% expected
Penalties: Arizona State 7 for 65 yards, Kansas 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:14 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:24 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +4% KU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:06 | Illegal Formation on Arizona State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% KU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:21 | Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards | +2% KU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:20 | False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:22 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards | +2% ASU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 10:07 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ASU +3.0 pts |
| Q3 4:32 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ASU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Personal Foul on Arizona State, 15 yards | +3% KU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:01 | Face Mask on Kansas, 15 yards | +1% ASU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:36 | Face Mask on Arizona State, 15 yards | +1% KU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Kansas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 53%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:51 | Kansas fumbled and Arizona State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% ASU | KU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 10:57 | Return touchdown by KansasSpecial teams | +13% KU | KU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 10:07 | Holding on Kansas, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% ASU | ASU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 7:42 | Kansas was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +6% ASU | KU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q3 5:46 | Kansas converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +5% KU | KU: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:25 | M. Connington missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him | +5% ASU | KU: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 0:33 | Arizona State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% KU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:34 | Kansas fumbled and Arizona State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% ASU | KU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona State 71% · Kansas 29%
- Final margin
- Arizona State by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for Arizona State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona State by 4.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona State 8% · Kansas 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Arizona State · 
Kansas
More from Week 3 2026
- Miami (OH) at Cincinnati CIN 35–31 · replay 48% for the winner
- Colorado at Northwestern NU 41–7 · replay 65% for the winner
- Houston at Texas Tech TTU 28–26 · replay 73% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Baylor BAY 36–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Arizona ARIZ 42–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Tulane at Kansas State KSU 31–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- West Virginia vs Virginia WVU 38–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Arkansas State at TCU TCU 31–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Utah State at Utah UTAH 33–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- BYU at Colorado State BYU 41–23 · replay 100% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Iowa State ISU 55–7 · replay 100% for the winner