luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 49 of the 55 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Louisiana Tech at Baylor, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

Baylor beat Louisiana Tech 36–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Baylor wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Baylor was a 91% favorite.

Final

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 19
Baylor Bears 36

September 19, 2026 · McLane Stadium · Closing line: Baylor −20.5

Luck index +17 Baylor about even · −17 Louisiana Tech

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Louisiana Tech wins 2, Baylor wins 8.

  1. 1 LT 26 BAY 13
  2. 2 LT 30 BAY 27
  3. 3 LT 5 BAY 8
  4. 4 LT 13 BAY 20
  5. 5 LT 20 BAY 31
  6. 6 LT 21 BAY 35
  7. 7 LT 17 BAY 34
  8. 8 LT 24 BAY 46
  9. 9 LT 0 BAY 28
  10. 10 LT 0 BAY 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Louisiana Tech wins 17% of them, Baylor 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Baylor by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Louisiana Tech by 17+2.4%
Louisiana Tech by 9–164.8%
Louisiana Tech by 1–89.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Baylor by 1–820.0%
Baylor by 9–1620.1%
Baylor by 17+41.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to Baylor: the final margin was Baylor by 17, without the luck Baylor by 16. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Kent, 34 yds missed · 82% expected
  • R. Armstrong, 23 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Louisiana Tech 9 for 81 yards, Baylor 10 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:56 Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards 0% BAY +0.2 pts
Q1 11:40 Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards +2% BAY +3.6 pts
Q1 11:01 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LT +0.5 pts
Q2 13:23 Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 4 yards +2% BAY +2.2 pts
Q2 13:19 False Start on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LT +0.8 pts
Q2 10:37 Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards 0% BAY +1.1 pts
Q2 7:21 Holding on Louisiana Tech, 10 yards 0% BAY +0.6 pts
Q2 5:03 Offside on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LT +2.8 pts
Q2 3:46 False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +0.6 pts
Q2 1:09 Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yards 0% LT +1.3 pts
Q2 0:17 Face Mask on Baylor, 15 yards 0% LT +0.8 pts
Q3 10:14 Holding on Louisiana Tech, 2 yards, wiping out the play 0% LT +6.2 pts
Q3 8:41 Unnecessary Roughness on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards 0% BAY +1.6 pts
Q3 0:11 Offside on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LT +0.8 pts
Q4 8:14 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards 0% LT +1.5 pts
Q4 6:21 Roughing the Passer on Baylor, 13 yards 0% LT +1.5 pts
Q4 5:29 Pass Interference on Baylor, 7 yards, wiping out the play +1% LT +5.4 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAY +0.8 pts
Q4 1:01 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards 0% LT +0.6 pts

When it happened

Baylor’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Baylor was ahead in it, below while Louisiana Tech was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:40 Roughing the Passer on Louisiana Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% BAY BAY: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:20 Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +2% LT LT: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:49 Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% LT LT: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:26 Baylor converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% BAY BAY: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:23 Pass Interference on Louisiana Tech, 4 yardsJudgment calls +2% BAY BAY: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:26 Baylor was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +1% LT BAY: Turnover
7 Q2 5:03 Offside on Baylor, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +2% LT LT: Missed field goal
8 Q3 11:00 Louisiana Tech was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +2% BAY LT: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Louisiana Tech 1% · Baylor 99%

Final margin
Baylor by 17
Luck in points
1.0 for Baylor
Luck-adjusted margin
Baylor by 16.0
Replay with same day's form
Louisiana Tech 17% · Baylor 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 49 of the 55 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Louisiana Tech · Baylor

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