Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Coastal Carolina at Delaware, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Delaware beat Coastal Carolina 22–14, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Delaware was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:30 left): Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to Delaware.
Final
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 14 |
|---|---|
 Delaware Blue Hens | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Delaware lucky · −28 Coastal Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Coastal Carolina wins 3, Delaware wins 7.
- 1 CCU 33 DEL 14
- 2 CCU 14 DEL 6
- 3 CCU 23 DEL 20
- 4 CCU 21 DEL 24
- 5 CCU 14 DEL 20
- 6 CCU 21 DEL 30
- 7 CCU 7 DEL 20
- 8 CCU 23 DEL 40
- 9 CCU 7 DEL 31
- 10 CCU 3 DEL 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Coastal Carolina wins 28% of them, Delaware 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 4.9% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 7.2% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 22.0% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Delaware by 17+ | 27.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Coastal Carolina 4 for 28 yards, Delaware 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:19 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards | +3% CCU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:32 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 14:52 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards | +1% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:27 | False Start on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 8 yards | +2% DEL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:30 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% DEL +4.7 pts |
| Q4 7:10 | Face Mask on Delaware, 15 yards | +5% CCU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Delaware’s chance of winning
As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:32 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% CCU | CCU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 2:50 | Delaware was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +8% CCU | DEL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 10:30 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +15% DEL | DEL: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 6:36 | Delaware converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% DEL | DEL: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 13:19 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +6% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 12:29 | Coastal Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 11:44 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +7% CCU | CCU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 4:07 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +10% DEL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Coastal Carolina 5% · Delaware 95%
- Final margin
- Delaware by 8
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for Coastal Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Delaware by 8.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Coastal Carolina 28% · Delaware 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Coastal Carolina · 
Delaware
More from Week 3 2026
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- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
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