Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
Marshall at Missouri State, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
Marshall beat Missouri State 30–24, but the replays lean toward Missouri State: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Marshall.
Before kickoff Marshall was a 60% favorite.
Final
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 30 |
|---|---|
 Missouri State Bears | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +78 Marshall very lucky · −78 Missouri State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Marshall wins 2, Missouri State wins 8.
- 1 MRSH 24 MOST 10
- 2 MRSH 17 MOST 13
- 3 MRSH 20 MOST 23
- 4 MRSH 28 MOST 34
- 5 MRSH 21 MOST 29
- 6 MRSH 28 MOST 40
- 7 MRSH 7 MOST 23
- 8 MRSH 7 MOST 27
- 9 MRSH 28 MOST 52
- 10 MRSH 10 MOST 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Marshall wins 22% of them, Missouri State 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Marshall by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Marshall by 17+ | 3.2% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 23.6% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Missouri State by 17+ | 35.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 25 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Diaz Nicolas, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- Y. Obeid, 22 yds blocked · 95% expected
- J. Diaz Nicolas, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- J. Diaz Nicolas, 31 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Marshall 4 for 55 yards, Missouri State 11 for 87 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:13 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +4% MRSH +2.0 pts |
| Q1 6:59 | Face Mask on Marshall, 15 yards | +3% MOST +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:55 | Illegal Substitution on Missouri State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH 0.0 pts |
| Q1 2:37 | Offside on Missouri State, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% MRSH 0.0 pts |
| Q1 1:33 | Face Mask on Marshall, 15 yards | +3% MOST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:53 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 15 yards | +4% MRSH +2.0 pts |
| Q3 14:56 | Offside on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MRSH +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:49 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 7 yards | +2% MRSH +1.2 pts |
| Q3 13:14 | False Start on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:51 | Roughing the Passer on Marshall, 15 yards | +1% MOST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:25 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +2% MRSH +1.5 pts |
| Q3 6:31 | Targeting on Missouri State, 15 yards | +2% MRSH +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:01 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% MRSH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:59 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yards | +4% MOST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:56 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +8% MRSH +2.0 pts |
When it happened
Missouri State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 6:53 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MRSH | MRSH: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 1:00 | Y. Obeid had a 22-yard field goal blockedKicks · 95% expected for him | +7% MRSH | MOST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:22 | Marshall converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedMarshall fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% MRSH | MRSH: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 4:45 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:47 | Missouri State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +6% MOST | MOST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 1:59 | Holding on Marshall, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 9:56 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% MRSH | MRSH: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 4:59 | Marshall fumbled and Missouri State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% MOST | MRSH: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Marshall 15% · Missouri State 85%
- Final margin
- Marshall by 6
- Luck in points
- 12.0 for Marshall
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Missouri State by 6.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Marshall 22% · Missouri State 78% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Marshall · 
Missouri State
More from Week 3 2026
- SE Louisiana at UL Monroe SELA 38–35 · replay 28% for the winner
- Florida International at Florida Atlantic FAU 16–10 · replay 31% for the winner
- James Madison at San Diego State JMU 26–13 · replay 40% for the winner
- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
- Ohio at South Alabama USA 41–36 · replay 62% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at Delaware DEL 22–14 · replay 72% for the winner
- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at Baylor BAY 36–19 · replay 83% for the winner
- Nevada at Middle Tennessee MTSU 27–20 · replay 84% for the winner