Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026
SE Louisiana at UL Monroe, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
SE Louisiana beat UL Monroe 38–35, but the replays lean toward UL Monroe: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff UL Monroe was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:59 left): SE Louisiana converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to SE Louisiana.
Final
 SE Louisiana Lions | 38 |
|---|---|
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +72 SE Louisiana very lucky · −72 UL Monroe
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. SE Louisiana wins 3, UL Monroe wins 7.
- 1 SELA 27 ULM 7
- 2 SELA 21 ULM 14
- 3 SELA 19 ULM 17
- 4 SELA 33 ULM 35
- 5 SELA 28 ULM 34
- 6 SELA 10 ULM 20
- 7 SELA 17 ULM 30
- 8 SELA 21 ULM 38
- 9 SELA 6 ULM 28
- 10 SELA 6 ULM 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
SE Louisiana wins 28% of them, UL Monroe 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SE Louisiana by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| SE Louisiana by 17+ | 5.4% |
| SE Louisiana by 9–16 | 8.8% |
| SE Louisiana by 1–8 | 13.5% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| UL Monroe by 1–8 | 22.5% |
| UL Monroe by 9–16 | 18.5% |
| UL Monroe by 17+ | 28.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Talley, 43 yds made · 66% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: SE Louisiana 3 for 12 yards, UL Monroe 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:02 | False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% SELA +2.0 pts |
| Q2 4:02 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +2% SELA +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:09 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% SELA +2.0 pts |
| Q3 10:30 | Offside on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SELA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:54 | Delay of Game on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SELA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:52 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards | +2% SELA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:58 | Holding on SE Louisiana, 2 yards | +1% ULM +0.8 pts |
| Q4 8:10 | Face Mask on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +3% SELA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:58 | Delay of Game on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ULM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:04 | Delay of Game on SE Louisiana, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ULM +0.4 pts |
When it happened
UL Monroe’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:10 | SE Louisiana converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% SELA | SELA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:36 | SE Louisiana fumbled and UL Monroe recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ULM | SELA: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 11:19 | UL Monroe fumbled and SE Louisiana recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SELA | ULM: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 7:35 | UL Monroe was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +5% SELA | ULM: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 1:09 | Holding on UL Monroe, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% SELA | SELA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:59 | SE Louisiana converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +9% SELA | SELA: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 1:42 | SE Louisiana was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +8% ULM | SELA: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:08 | UL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% SELA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
SE Louisiana 66% · UL Monroe 34%
- Final margin
- SE Louisiana by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for SE Louisiana
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SE Louisiana by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- SE Louisiana 28% · UL Monroe 72% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
SE Louisiana · 
UL Monroe
More from Week 3 2026
- Marshall at Missouri State MRSH 30–24 · replay 22% for the winner
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- East Carolina at Old Dominion ECU 20–17 · replay 54% for the winner
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- Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State JXST 31–27 · replay 67% for the winner
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- UAB at Louisiana UL 21–14 · replay 74% for the winner
- Georgia State at UCF UCF 44–30 · replay 78% for the winner
- Charlotte at App State APP 26–21 · replay 83% for the winner
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- Troy at Missouri MIZ 27–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Arkansas State at TCU TCU 31–7 · replay 96% for the winner