luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 19, 2026

East Carolina at Old Dominion, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

East Carolina beat Old Dominion 20–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, East Carolina wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 9 points of win probability to East Carolina.

Before kickoff Old Dominion was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:12 left): Return touchdown by Old Dominion, worth 18 points of win probability to Old Dominion.

Final

East Carolina Pirates 20
Old Dominion Monarchs 17

September 19, 2026 · S.B. Ballard Stadium · Closing line: Old Dominion −2.5

Luck index +46 East Carolina lucky · −46 Old Dominion

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. East Carolina wins 5, Old Dominion wins 5.

  1. 1 ECU 32 ODU 5
  2. 2 ECU 38 ODU 20
  3. 3 ECU 24 ODU 12
  4. 4 ECU 24 ODU 17
  5. 5 ECU 17 ODU 14
  6. 6 ECU 14 ODU 16
  7. 7 ECU 14 ODU 20
  8. 8 ECU 17 ODU 28
  9. 9 ECU 0 ODU 17
  10. 10 ECU 13 ODU 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

East Carolina wins 54% of them, Old Dominion 46%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
East Carolina by 17+17.2%
East Carolina by 9–1616.8%
East Carolina by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.2%
Old Dominion by 1–820.3%
Old Dominion by 9–1612.0%
Old Dominion by 17+11.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to Old Dominion: the final margin was East Carolina by 3, without the luck East Carolina by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Eichner, 38 yds made · 75% expected
  • N. Perez, 36 yds made · 79% expected
  • N. Perez, 24 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: East Carolina 8 for 80 yards, Old Dominion 9 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:18 Pass Interference on East Carolina, 15 yards +3% ODU +1.6 pts
Q1 11:33 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ECU +0.5 pts
Q2 12:35 Roughing the Passer on East Carolina, 15 yards, wiping out the play +12% ODU +5.2 pts
Q2 12:35 Illegal Formation on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% ECU +3.3 pts
Q2 9:17 Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards +1% ODU +0.6 pts
Q2 8:12 Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards +1% ODU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:11 Roughing the Passer on Old Dominion, 15 yards +2% ECU +0.9 pts
Q2 1:11 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ODU +1.1 pts
Q2 0:00 Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yards +4% ODU 0.0 pts
Q3 14:56 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards +3% ECU +1.4 pts
Q3 12:36 Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yards +5% ECU +1.7 pts
Q3 8:30 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ODU +0.8 pts
Q3 1:46 Personal Foul on East Carolina, 15 yards +3% ODU +0.9 pts
Q3 1:46 Offside on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ECU +0.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards +5% ECU +1.2 pts
Q4 15:00 Offside on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ECU +1.0 pts
Q4 3:36 Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yards 0% ECU +1.9 pts

When it happened

Old Dominion’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Old Dominion was ahead in it, below while East Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:18 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedOld Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedPass Interference on East Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% ODU ODU: Punt
2 Q1 0:39 East Carolina was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% ODU ECU: End of half
3 Q2 8:12 East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 243rd & 4th downs · 10% expectedEast Carolina fumbled and Old Dominion recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50East Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Holding on East Carolina, 10 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by Old DominionSpecial teams +18% ODU ECU: Punt
4 Q3 12:36 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedOld Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedOld Dominion fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by East CarolinaSpecial teams +12% ECU ODU: Punt
5 Q3 5:26 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedOld Dominion converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedOld Dominion fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% ODU ODU: Turnover
6 Q4 15:00 East Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedHolding on Old Dominion, 10 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Old Dominion, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +17% ECU ECU: Field goal
7 Q4 9:39 Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedN. Perez made a 24-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +5% ODU ODU: Punt
8 Q4 4:36 East Carolina was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedOld Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% ECU ECU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

East Carolina 83% · Old Dominion 17%

Final margin
East Carolina by 3
Luck in points
4.4 for Old Dominion
Luck-adjusted margin
East Carolina by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
East Carolina 54% · Old Dominion 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · East Carolina · Old Dominion

More from Week 3 2026

Every week 3 game, 2026