American · 2026 season, in progress

East Carolina Pirates: luck and expected wins

East Carolina is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.2 wins. Luck cost 0.2: the 49th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–1.

2026, game by game

How often East Carolina wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Alabama	L 10–48	1%	−1
Week 2	vs App State	L 24–27	65%	−65
Week 3	@ Old Dominion	W 20–17	54%	+46
Week 4	vs North Carolina Central	W 42–9	98%	+2

Wk 1 −1 @ ALA

Wk 2 −65 vs APP

Wk 3 +46 @ ODU

Wk 4 +2 vs NCCU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	East Carolina win chance
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Rice	East Carolina by 14.7	82%
Week 7 · Oct 15	at UAB	East Carolina by 6.0	64%
Week 8 · Oct 22	at Memphis	Memphis by 6.6	34%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Temple	East Carolina by 5.5	63%
Week 10 · Nov 6	vs South Florida	South Florida by 4.3	40%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Charlotte	East Carolina by 16.9	84%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Army	Army by 8.2	31%
Week 13 · Nov 27	vs Florida Atlantic	East Carolina by 9.0	70%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in East Carolina’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.18	−0.4
Kicks	−0.10	−5.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.20	−15.9
Fumble bounces	−0.23	−6.3

Luckiest wins

Wins East Carolina takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Go Bowling Military Bowl	vs Pittsburgh	W 23–17	19%	+81
2026 Week 3	@ Old Dominion	W 20–17	54%	+46
2025 Week 12	vs Memphis	W 31–27	62%	+38
2025 Week 5	vs Army	W 28–6	91%	+9
2025 Week 11	vs Charlotte	W 48–22	91%	+9

Unluckiest losses

Losses East Carolina would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	vs App State	L 24–27	65%	−65
2025 Week 4	vs BYU	L 13–34	34%	−34
2025 Week 7	@ Tulane	L 19–26	24%	−24
2025 Week 1	@ NC State	L 17–24	19%	−19
2026 Week 1	@ Alabama	L 10–48	1%	−1

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	8.1	−0.1	1–2	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ NC State	L 17–24	19%	−19
Week 2	vs Campbell	W 56–3	100%	0
Week 3	@ Coastal Carolina	W 38–0	96%	+4
Week 4	vs BYU	L 13–34	34%	−34
Week 5	vs Army	W 28–6	91%	+9
Week 7	@ Tulane	L 19–26	24%	−24
Week 8	vs Tulsa	W 41–27	94%	+6
Week 10	@ Temple	W 45–14	100%	0
Week 11	vs Charlotte	W 48–22	91%	+9
Week 12	vs Memphis	W 31–27	62%	+38
Week 13	@ UTSA	L 24–58	1%	−1
Week 14	@ Florida Atlantic	W 42–3	99%	+1
Go Bowling Military Bowl	vs Pittsburgh	W 23–17	19%	+81