American · 2026 season, in progress
Navy Midshipmen: luck and expected wins
Navy is 1–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck cost 0.8: the 17th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.
2026, game by game
How often Navy wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Towson | W 42–15 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 2 | @ Florida Atlantic | L 30–38 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 4 | @ UAB | L 20–24 | 68% | −68 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Navy win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Air Force |  Air Force by 2.4 | 44% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Tulsa |  Navy by 5.1 | 62% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at UTSA |  UTSA by 11.0 | 25% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs North Texas |  North Texas by 8.6 | 30% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Notre Dame |  Notre Dame by 31.8 | 3% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Temple | Navy by 2.9 | 57% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Memphis |  Memphis by 2.9 | 43% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Charlotte | Navy by 14.3 | 80% |
| Week 15 · Dec 12 | vs Army |  Army by 7.9 | 32% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Navy’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.08 | −0.7 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.12 | −3.2 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Navy takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Temple | W 32–31 | 15% | +85 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs South Florida | W 41–38 | 38% | +62 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Memphis | W 28–17 | 42% | +58 |
| 2025 Week 16 | vs Army | W 17–16 | 64% | +36 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Air Force | W 34–31 | 74% | +26 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Navy would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 4 | @ UAB | L 20–24 | 68% | −68 |
| 2025 Week 10 | @ North Texas | L 17–31 | 52% | −52 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ Florida Atlantic | L 30–38 | 15% | −15 |
| 2025 Week 11 | @ Notre Dame | L 10–49 | 0% | 0 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10–2 | 7.5 | +2.5 | 5–0 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs VMI | W 52–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs UAB | W 38–24 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 3 | @ Tulsa | W 42–23 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 5 | vs Rice | W 21–13 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 6 | vs Air Force | W 34–31 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 7 | @ Temple | W 32–31 | 15% | +85 |
| Week 9 | vs Florida Atlantic | W 42–32 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 10 | @ North Texas | L 17–31 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 11 | @ Notre Dame | L 10–49 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 12 | vs South Florida | W 41–38 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 14 | @ Memphis | W 28–17 | 42% | +58 |
| Week 16 | vs Army | W 17–16 | 64% | +36 |
| AutoZone Liberty Bowl | vs Cincinnati | W 35–13 | 91% | +9 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- American teams by luck
- American: Army,
Charlotte, 
East Carolina, 
Florida Atlantic, Memphis, North Texas, 
Rice, 
South Florida, 
Temple, 
Tulane, 
Tulsa, 
UAB, UTSA
How many wins does Navy have in 2026?
1–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.8 wins.
Was Navy lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.8 wins of luck, the 17th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Navy’s luckiest season?
2025: 10–2 from play worth 7.5 wins, +2.5 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–2 from play worth 1.8 (−0.8).