luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 27, 2025

Navy at Memphis, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Navy beat Memphis 28–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Navy wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Navy.

Before kickoff Memphis was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:23 left): Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to Memphis.

Final

Navy Midshipmen 28
Memphis Tigers 17

November 27, 2025 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Closing line: Memphis −4

Luck index +58 Navy lucky · −58 Memphis

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Navy wins 4, Memphis wins 6.

  1. 1 NAVY 27 MEM 7
  2. 2 NAVY 28 MEM 16
  3. 3 NAVY 24 MEM 17
  4. 4 NAVY 17 MEM 14
  5. 5 NAVY 14 MEM 16
  6. 6 NAVY 27 MEM 31
  7. 7 NAVY 7 MEM 14
  8. 8 NAVY 13 MEM 24
  9. 9 NAVY 16 MEM 33
  10. 10 NAVY 14 MEM 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Navy wins 42% of them, Memphis 58%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Navy by 17+8.0%
Navy by 9–1613.8%
Navy by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Memphis by 1–825.9%
Memphis by 9–1618.0%
Memphis by 17+12.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.6 points to Navy: the final margin was Navy by 11, without the luck Memphis by 2.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Spetic, 31 yds made · 87% expected
  • G. Spetic, 31 yds missed · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Navy 7 for 56 yards, Memphis 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:20 Illegal Substitution on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% MEM +2.8 pts
Q1 2:24 Holding on Navy, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% MEM +2.2 pts
Q2 15:00 Offside on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NAVY +0.1 pts
Q2 3:56 Holding on Memphis, 10 yards +2% NAVY +0.9 pts
Q2 3:38 False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NAVY +0.5 pts
Q2 2:42 Unnecessary Roughness on Navy, 15 yards +4% MEM +1.6 pts
Q2 1:06 Intentional Grounding on Navy, 0 yards 0% MEM 0.0 pts
Q2 1:01 Holding on Navy, 6 yards 0% MEM +0.1 pts
Q3 7:55 Pass Interference on Memphis, 9 yards +6% NAVY +1.8 pts
Q3 6:17 Offside on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap +10% NAVY +2.9 pts
Q3 0:23 Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards +11% MEM +2.9 pts
Q4 9:26 Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards +7% NAVY +2.0 pts
Q4 2:30 Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MEM +0.4 pts

When it happened

Memphis’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Memphis was ahead in it, below while Navy was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:28 Navy converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% NAVY NAVY: Touchdown
2 Q3 7:55 Pass Interference on Memphis, 9 yardsJudgment calls +6% NAVY NAVY: Turnover
3 Q3 6:42 Navy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NAVY NAVY: Turnover
4 Q3 6:17 Offside on Memphis, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% NAVY NAVY: Turnover
5 Q3 4:57 Navy fumbled and Memphis recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MEM NAVY: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:23 Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% MEM MEM: Punt
7 Q4 11:26 Navy converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% NAVY NAVY: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:26 Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% NAVY NAVY: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Navy 36% · Memphis 64%

Final margin
Navy by 11
Luck in points
13.6 for Navy
Luck-adjusted margin
Memphis by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Navy 42% · Memphis 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Navy · Memphis

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