luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Rice at South Florida, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

South Florida beat Rice 52–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, South Florida wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff South Florida was a 97% favorite.

Final

Rice Owls 3
South Florida Bulls 52

November 29, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: South Florida −28.5

Luck index 0 South Florida about even · 0 Rice

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rice wins 0, South Florida wins 10.

  1. 1 RICE 14 USF 33
  2. 2 RICE 7 USF 33
  3. 3 RICE 3 USF 34
  4. 4 RICE 7 USF 42
  5. 5 RICE 0 USF 38
  6. 6 RICE 0 USF 41
  7. 7 RICE 0 USF 43
  8. 8 RICE 3 USF 49
  9. 9 RICE 0 USF 49
  10. 10 RICE 0 USF 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rice wins 0% of them, South Florida 100%. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rice by 17+0.0%
Rice by 9–160.0%
Rice by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
South Florida by 1–80.9%
South Florida by 9–163.1%
South Florida by 17+95.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.0 points to South Florida: the final margin was South Florida by 49, without the luck South Florida by 37. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • E. Gota, 44 yds made · 64% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 23 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rice 9 for 83 yards, South Florida 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:47 False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.8 pts
Q1 12:49 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards 0% RICE +0.6 pts
Q2 7:45 Offside on Rice, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% USF +2.8 pts
Q2 0:22 Targeting on South Florida, 15 yards 0% RICE +0.6 pts
Q3 12:01 Holding on Rice, 10 yards 0% USF +0.2 pts
Q3 9:39 Holding on Rice, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% USF +2.1 pts
Q3 4:40 Holding on Rice, 10 yards 0% USF +1.3 pts
Q3 3:48 Holding on Rice, 10 yards 0% USF +1.3 pts
Q3 2:01 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% RICE +1.4 pts
Q3 1:41 Personal Foul on Rice, 13 yards 0% USF +0.8 pts
Q4 13:59 False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% USF +0.6 pts
Q4 3:49 Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards 0% USF +1.5 pts

When it happened

South Florida’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Florida was ahead in it, below while Rice was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:43 South Florida converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +0% USF USF: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:45 South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% RICE USF: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:25 South Florida converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +0% USF USF: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:07 Rice converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +0% RICE RICE: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 6:45 Rice converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +1% RICE RICE: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 4:51 Rice was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +0% USF RICE: Turnover on downs
7 Q1 4:10 Rice was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +1% USF RICE: Punt
8 Q2 7:45 Offside on Rice, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +1% USF USF: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rice 0% · South Florida 100%

Final margin
South Florida by 49
Luck in points
12.0 for South Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
South Florida by 37.0
Replay with same day's form
Rice 0% · South Florida 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Rice · South Florida

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