Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
SMU at California, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
California beat SMU 38–35, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, SMU wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff SMU was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:32 left): Personal Foul on California, 7 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to SMU.
Final
 SMU Mustangs | 35 |
|---|---|
 California Golden Bears | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +82 California very lucky · −82 SMU
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. SMU wins 8, California wins 2.
- 1 SMU 55 CAL 17
- 2 SMU 69 CAL 38
- 3 SMU 40 CAL 16
- 4 SMU 52 CAL 31
- 5 SMU 23 CAL 7
- 6 SMU 31 CAL 19
- 7 SMU 35 CAL 27
- 8 SMU 27 CAL 24
- 9 SMU 35 CAL 38
- 10 SMU 24 CAL 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
SMU wins 82% of them, California 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: California by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| SMU by 17+ | 42.4% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 21.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| California by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| California by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| California by 17+ | 2.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Meyer, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- A. Murray, 46 yds missed · 63% expected
- S. Keltner, 52 yds missed · 51% expected
Penalties: SMU 9 for 94 yards, California 7 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:36 | Holding on California, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% SMU +4.1 pts |
| Q1 2:13 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yards | +5% SMU +2.8 pts |
| Q2 13:49 | Personal Foul on SMU, 15 yards | +3% CAL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:26 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +1% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:02 | Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 2:59 | Pass Interference on SMU, 15 yards | +2% CAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 14:50 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +2% CAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:08 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +1% SMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:28 | Face Mask on SMU, 10 yards | +4% CAL +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:16 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yards | +3% SMU +1.4 pts |
| Q3 9:12 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 3:38 | Pass Interference on SMU, 15 yards | +6% CAL +2.1 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +3% SMU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 3:32 | Personal Foul on California, 7 yards | +9% SMU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Pass Interference on SMU, 9 yards | +2% CAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:16 | False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.3 pts |
When it happened
California’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:36 | Holding on California, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 2:13 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:13 | A. Murray missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before | +6% SMU | CAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 12:06 | California converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +5% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 3:38 | Pass Interference on SMU, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 2:37 | California converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:15 | California was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% SMU | CAL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 3:32 | Personal Foul on California, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +9% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
SMU 52% · California 48%
- Final margin
- California by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for California
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- SMU 82% · California 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
SMU · 
California
More from Week 14 2025
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Duke DUKE 49–32 · replay 47% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Stanford ND 49–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- North Carolina at NC State NCSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Miami at Pittsburgh MIA 38–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Kentucky at Louisville LOU 41–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Virginia UVA 27–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Boston College at Syracuse BC 34–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner