Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Georgia vs Georgia Tech, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia beat Georgia Tech 16–9, but the replays lean toward Georgia Tech: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Georgia won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Georgia Tech it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%. The numbers
Before kickoff Georgia was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Georgia Bulldogs | 16 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +65 Georgia very lucky · −65 Georgia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia wins 3, Georgia Tech wins 7.
- 1 UGA 24 GT 10
- 2 UGA 16 GT 7
- 3 UGA 10 GT 7
- 4 UGA 7 GT 10
- 5 UGA 10 GT 14
- 6 UGA 10 GT 17
- 7 UGA 6 GT 16
- 8 UGA 0 GT 14
- 9 UGA 6 GT 23
- 10 UGA 3 GT 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Georgia won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Georgia Tech it would win 82% of the time; with this day’s form, 35%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for Georgia: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.11 | worse by 0.13 |
| Georgia defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.12 | +0.05 | better by 0.17 |
| Georgia Tech offenseEPA per play gained | −0.12 | +0.12 | worse by 0.24 |
| Georgia Tech defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.13 | better by 0.14 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia wins 35% of them, Georgia Tech 65%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia by 17+ | 5.2% |
| Georgia by 9–16 | 9.8% |
| Georgia by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 7.6% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 15.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Birr, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- P. Woodring, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- P. Woodring, 30 yds made · 92% expected
- A. Birr, 44 yds made · 68% expected
- P. Woodring, 50 yds made · 60% expected
- A. Birr, 41 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Georgia 5 for 45 yards, Georgia Tech 5 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:05 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UGA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:43 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | +2% UGA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Personal Foul on Georgia Tech, 12 yards | +1% UGA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 13:37 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:37 | Illegal Substitution on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:22 | False Start on Georgia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GT 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:09 | Face Mask on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | +2% UGA +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:57 | Personal Foul on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | +3% UGA +2.3 pts |
| Q4 5:05 | Roughing the Passer on Georgia, 15 yards | +2% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:51 | Pass Interference on Georgia, 15 yards | +1% GT +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:52 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% GT | GT: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:31 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +2% UGA | GT: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 6:05 | Georgia converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +3% UGA | UGA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 4:35 | Georgia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% UGA | UGA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 5:10 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +2% UGA | GT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 14:10 | P. Woodring made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 12 of 16 from 45+ before | +2% UGA | UGA: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 12:58 | Georgia Tech converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% GT | GT: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 10:57 | Personal Foul on Georgia Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UGA | UGA: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia 88% · Georgia Tech 12%
- Final margin
- Georgia by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for Georgia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia by 6.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia 35% · Georgia Tech 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Georgia · 
Georgia Tech
More from Week 14 2025
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Alabama at Auburn ALA 27–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Duke DUKE 49–32 · replay 47% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Mississippi State MISS 38–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Missouri at Arkansas MIZ 31–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Tennessee VAN 45–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Stanford ND 49–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- LSU at Oklahoma OU 17–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- North Carolina at NC State NCSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner