luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Clemson at South Carolina, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Clemson beat South Carolina 28–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Clemson wins 5 of 10.

Before kickoff South Carolina was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:31 left): Roughing the Kicker on South Carolina, 15 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to Clemson.

Final

Clemson Tigers 28
South Carolina Gamecocks 14

November 29, 2025 · Williams-Brice Stadium · Closing line: South Carolina −2.5

Luck index +53 Clemson lucky · −53 South Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Clemson wins 5, South Carolina wins 5.

  1. 1 CLEM 30 SC 6
  2. 2 CLEM 37 SC 21
  3. 3 CLEM 23 SC 13
  4. 4 CLEM 32 SC 26
  5. 5 CLEM 31 SC 28
  6. 6 CLEM 10 SC 13
  7. 7 CLEM 20 SC 26
  8. 8 CLEM 14 SC 24
  9. 9 CLEM 14 SC 31
  10. 10 CLEM 21 SC 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Clemson wins 47% of them, South Carolina 53%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Clemson by 17+12.4%
Clemson by 9–1612.8%
Clemson by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation2.2%
South Carolina by 1–820.7%
South Carolina by 9–1616.6%
South Carolina by 17+14.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to Clemson: the final margin was Clemson by 14, without the luck Clemson by 7.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Hauser, 32 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Hauser, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Clemson 7 for 45 yards, South Carolina 5 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:35 Illegal Formation on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SC +1.2 pts
Q2 7:42 Face Mask on South Carolina, 10 yards +3% CLEM +1.3 pts
Q2 4:37 Pass Interference on South Carolina, 4 yards +4% CLEM +1.3 pts
Q2 1:28 Pass Interference on South Carolina, 15 yards +1% CLEM +0.6 pts
Q2 1:15 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards 0% SC +0.9 pts
Q2 0:01 Delay of Game on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SC +0.2 pts
Q3 11:31 Roughing the Kicker on South Carolina, 15 yards +13% CLEM +4.7 pts
Q3 3:13 Holding on South Carolina, 10 yards 0% CLEM +0.6 pts
Q4 12:46 Illegal Formation on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SC +0.6 pts
Q4 4:26 Illegal Formation on Clemson, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% SC +1.4 pts
Q4 3:36 Delay of Game on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLEM +0.1 pts
Q4 2:26 Holding on Clemson, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% SC +5.7 pts

When it happened

South Carolina’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Carolina was ahead in it, below while Clemson was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:45 Clemson converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% CLEM CLEM: Turnover
2 Q2 14:14 Clemson converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% CLEM CLEM: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:37 Clemson converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% CLEM CLEM: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:48 Clemson converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% SC CLEM: Field goal
5 Q2 4:37 Pass Interference on South Carolina, 4 yardsJudgment calls +4% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
6 Q2 0:56 N. Hauser made a 32-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +6% SC CLEM: End of half
7 Q3 12:37 Clemson converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% CLEM CLEM: Field goal
8 Q3 11:31 Roughing the Kicker on South Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls +13% CLEM CLEM: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Clemson 89% · South Carolina 11%

Final margin
Clemson by 14
Luck in points
6.4 for Clemson
Luck-adjusted margin
Clemson by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Clemson 47% · South Carolina 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Clemson · South Carolina

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