luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025

Ole Miss at Mississippi State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Ole Miss beat Mississippi State 38–19, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 69% favorite.

Final

Ole Miss Rebels 38
Mississippi State Bulldogs 19

November 28, 2025 · Davis Wade Stadium · Closing line: Ole Miss −7.5

Luck index +22 Ole Miss about even · −22 Mississippi State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ole Miss wins 8, Mississippi State wins 2.

  1. 1 MISS 59 MSST 21
  2. 2 MISS 42 MSST 14
  3. 3 MISS 45 MSST 21
  4. 4 MISS 45 MSST 27
  5. 5 MISS 26 MSST 10
  6. 6 MISS 29 MSST 17
  7. 7 MISS 38 MSST 31
  8. 8 MISS 38 MSST 35
  9. 9 MISS 44 MSST 47
  10. 10 MISS 22 MSST 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ole Miss wins 78% of them, Mississippi State 22%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ole Miss by 17+38.4%
Ole Miss by 9–1617.7%
Ole Miss by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation4.8%
Mississippi State by 1–812.2%
Mississippi State by 9–165.7%
Mississippi State by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to Mississippi State: the final margin was Ole Miss by 19, without the luck Ole Miss by 27.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Carneiro, 37 yds missed · 75% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 40 yds made · 74% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 36 yds made · 80% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 43 yds missed · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ole Miss 5 for 50 yards, Mississippi State 6 for 67 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:43 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 15 yards +2% MISS +1.6 pts
Q2 14:55 False Start on Ole Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSST +0.7 pts
Q2 12:24 Holding on Mississippi State, 7 yards, wiping out the play +3% MISS +1.7 pts
Q2 3:28 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +1% MISS +0.5 pts
Q3 9:05 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +2% MISS +1.5 pts
Q3 8:24 Personal Foul on Mississippi State, 15 yards +2% MISS +1.6 pts
Q3 3:43 Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yards +1% MISS +0.8 pts
Q3 3:28 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards +1% MSST +0.6 pts
Q4 10:33 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards 0% MSST +0.6 pts
Q4 3:09 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% MSST +1.5 pts
Q4 2:04 Personal Foul on Ole Miss, 15 yards 0% MSST +0.7 pts

When it happened

Mississippi State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Mississippi State was ahead in it, below while Ole Miss was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:58 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% MISS MISS: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:53 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% MSST MSST: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:03 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% MISS MISS: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:11 L. Carneiro missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him +4% MSST MISS: Punt
5 Q2 12:24 Holding on Mississippi State, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% MISS MISS: Punt
6 Q2 3:28 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedOle Miss fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Holding on Mississippi State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% MISS MISS: Punt
7 Q3 6:43 L. Carneiro missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him +3% MISS MISS: Touchdown
8 Q3 5:35 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% MSST MSST: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ole Miss 100% · Mississippi State 0%

Final margin
Ole Miss by 19
Luck in points
8.2 for Mississippi State
Luck-adjusted margin
Ole Miss by 27.2
Replay with same day's form
Ole Miss 78% · Mississippi State 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Ole Miss · Mississippi State

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