Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Kentucky at Louisville, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisville beat Kentucky 41–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisville wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Kentucky: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Louisville it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff Kentucky was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Kentucky Wildcats | 0 |
|---|---|
 Louisville Cardinals | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Louisville about even · −2 Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kentucky wins 0, Louisville wins 10.
- 1 UK 13 LOU 17
- 2 UK 3 LOU 13
- 3 UK 0 LOU 15
- 4 UK 10 LOU 28
- 5 UK 3 LOU 24
- 6 UK 7 LOU 31
- 7 UK 3 LOU 31
- 8 UK 3 LOU 34
- 9 UK 0 LOU 35
- 10 UK 0 LOU 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Kentucky
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Louisville it would win 42% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for Kentucky: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky offenseEPA per play gained | −0.29 | −0.01 | worse by 0.28 |
| Kentucky defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.28 | +0.07 | worse by 0.21 |
| Louisville offenseEPA per play gained | +0.28 | +0.09 | better by 0.19 |
| Louisville defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.29 | +0.01 | better by 0.31 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kentucky wins 2% of them, Louisville 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 41.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kentucky by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Kentucky by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Kentucky by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 8.8% |
| Louisville by 17+ | 83.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kauwe, 52 yds missed · 52% expected
- C. Ranvier, 34 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Ranvier, 24 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Kentucky 4 for 34 yards, Louisville 9 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:51 | False Start on Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:18 | Offside on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.1 pts |
| Q1 2:53 | Intentional Grounding on Kentucky, 10 yards | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:41 | Ineligible Downfield on Louisville, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% UK +1.4 pts |
| Q2 14:47 | Holding on Kentucky, 9 yards | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:42 | Illegal Block on Louisville, 10 yards | +1% UK +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:09 | Holding on Kentucky, 10 yards | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:56 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards | +1% UK +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% UK +3.0 pts |
| Q3 5:55 | Offside on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:15 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UK +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:50 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards | 0% UK +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Louisville’s chance of winning
As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:47 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% UK | UK: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:33 | Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% LOU | UK: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 10:49 | Louisville fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% LOU | LOU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:02 | Kentucky converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +3% UK | UK: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 5:12 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +3% UK | LOU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 4:44 | Louisville converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +4% LOU | LOU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q1 2:07 | J. Kauwe missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 6 of 8 from 45+ before | +6% LOU | UK: Punt |
| 8 | Q1 0:41 | Ineligible Downfield on Louisville, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% UK | UK: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kentucky 0% · Louisville 100%
- Final margin
- Louisville by 41
- Luck in points
- 15.0 for Louisville
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisville by 26.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kentucky 2% · Louisville 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Kentucky · 
Louisville
More from Week 14 2025
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Alabama at Auburn ALA 27–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Duke DUKE 49–32 · replay 47% for the winner
- Ole Miss at Mississippi State MISS 38–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Missouri at Arkansas MIZ 31–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Vanderbilt at Tennessee VAN 45–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Stanford ND 49–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- LSU at Oklahoma OU 17–13 · replay 96% for the winner