Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Notre Dame at Stanford, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Notre Dame beat Stanford 49–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 49 |
|---|---|
 Stanford Cardinal | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Notre Dame about even · −5 Stanford
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Notre Dame wins 10, Stanford wins 0.
- 1 ND 48 STAN 7
- 2 ND 37 STAN 3
- 3 ND 31 STAN 3
- 4 ND 24 STAN 0
- 5 ND 31 STAN 10
- 6 ND 38 STAN 20
- 7 ND 31 STAN 16
- 8 ND 19 STAN 7
- 9 ND 21 STAN 14
- 10 ND 10 STAN 7
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Notre Dame wins 95% of them, Stanford 5%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 68.2% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Stanford by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Kenney, 39 yds made · 75% expected
- E. Kenney, 44 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: Notre Dame 3 for 35 yards, Stanford 3 for 23 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 7:21 | Face Mask on Notre Dame, 15 yards | 0% STAN +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:14 | Offside on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +1.8 pts |
| Q3 13:11 | Holding on Stanford, 7 yards | 0% ND +1.2 pts |
| Q4 14:25 | Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yards | 0% STAN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:22 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:12 | Targeting on Stanford, 11 yards | 0% ND +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Stanford’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:22 | Notre Dame converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:28 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:26 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% ND | STAN: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:29 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 3:38 | Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% STAN | ND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:57 | Notre Dame converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 14:45 | Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% STAN | ND: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 13:11 | Holding on Stanford, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Notre Dame 100% · Stanford 0%
- Final margin
- Notre Dame by 29
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for Notre Dame
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Notre Dame by 26.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Notre Dame 95% · Stanford 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Notre Dame · 
Stanford
More from Week 14 2025
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Duke DUKE 49–32 · replay 47% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- North Carolina at NC State NCSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Miami at Pittsburgh MIA 38–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Kentucky at Louisville LOU 41–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Virginia UVA 27–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Boston College at Syracuse BC 34–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner