Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Virginia Tech at Virginia, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Virginia beat Virginia Tech 27–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Virginia was a 71% favorite.
Final
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 7 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Cavaliers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Virginia about even · −2 Virginia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Virginia Tech wins 0, Virginia wins 10.
- 1 VT 3 UVA 7
- 2 VT 9 UVA 17
- 3 VT 3 UVA 16
- 4 VT 2 UVA 17
- 5 VT 3 UVA 20
- 6 VT 0 UVA 20
- 7 VT 0 UVA 23
- 8 VT 0 UVA 24
- 9 VT 0 UVA 29
- 10 VT 0 UVA 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Virginia Tech wins 1% of them, Virginia 99%. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 5.5% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Virginia by 17+ | 75.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Love, 45 yds missed · 68% expected
- W. Bettridge, 27 yds made · 91% expected
- W. Bettridge, 32 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Virginia Tech 6 for 44 yards, Virginia 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:17 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 8 yards | +1% UVA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 12:42 | Delay of Game on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UVA +0.3 pts |
| Q2 12:24 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | +1% VT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:13 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% VT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:26 | Illegal Block on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | +1% UVA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | 0% VT +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:43 | Illegal Block on Virginia Tech, 4 yards | 0% UVA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:41 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% UVA +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | 0% UVA +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:58 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | 0% VT +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:34 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% VT | VT: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 9:16 | Virginia converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 6:01 | Virginia Tech converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +2% VT | VT: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 3:48 | Virginia Tech converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +3% VT | VT: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q1 1:47 | J. Love missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 10 of 17 from 45+ before | +4% UVA | VT: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 13:25 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% UVA | VT: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 5:07 | Virginia converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% UVA | UVA: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 9:24 | Virginia converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +2% UVA | UVA: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Virginia Tech 1% · Virginia 99%
- Final margin
- Virginia by 20
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Virginia
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia by 12.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Virginia Tech 1% · Virginia 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Virginia Tech · 
Virginia
More from Week 14 2025
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Duke DUKE 49–32 · replay 47% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Stanford ND 49–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- North Carolina at NC State NCSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Miami at Pittsburgh MIA 38–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Kentucky at Louisville LOU 41–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Boston College at Syracuse BC 34–12 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner