Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Boston College at Syracuse, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Boston College beat Syracuse 34–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Boston College wins 10 of 10. Syracuse had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Syracuse.
An off day for Syracuse: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Boston College it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%. The numbers
Before kickoff Boston College was a 58% favorite.
Final
 Boston College Eagles | 34 |
|---|---|
 Syracuse Orange | 12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Boston College about even · 0 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boston College wins 10, Syracuse wins 0.
- 1 BC 54 SYR 0
- 2 BC 48 SYR 0
- 3 BC 42 SYR 0
- 4 BC 49 SYR 10
- 5 BC 42 SYR 7
- 6 BC 44 SYR 10
- 7 BC 38 SYR 7
- 8 BC 37 SYR 10
- 9 BC 21 SYR 0
- 10 BC 17 SYR 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Syracuse
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Boston College it would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 0%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for Syracuse: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.02 | better by 0.18 |
| Boston College defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.29 | +0.16 | better by 0.45 |
| Syracuse offenseEPA per play gained | −0.29 | +0.07 | worse by 0.36 |
| Syracuse defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.12 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boston College wins 100% of them, Syracuse 0%. The line is what actually happened: Boston College by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boston College by 17+ | 95.2% |
| Boston College by 9–16 | 3.6% |
| Boston College by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Syracuse by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Lombardo, 30 yds made · 90% expected
- T. Woody, 49 yds made · 57% expected
- T. Woody, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- L. Lombardo, 31 yds made · 89% expected
- L. Lombardo, 40 yds missed · 77% expected
Penalties: Boston College 4 for 31 yards, Syracuse 8 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:11 | Offside on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q1 11:24 | Encroachment on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.6 pts |
| Q1 9:07 | Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.5 pts |
| Q1 5:49 | Face Mask on Syracuse, 11 yards | +1% BC +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:44 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +3% BC +1.4 pts |
| Q2 2:57 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards | +2% BC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:19 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | +4% BC +1.7 pts |
| Q3 3:51 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 15 yards | +2% BC +1.2 pts |
| Q3 1:46 | Illegal Motion on Boston College, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SYR +1.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BC +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:58 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boston College, 16 yards | 0% SYR +1.7 pts |
When it happened
Syracuse’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:29 | Boston College converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% BC | BC: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:10 | Boston College converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 14:15 | T. Woody made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before | +3% SYR | SYR: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 12:53 | Boston College was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% SYR | BC: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 5:44 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 1:26 | Boston College converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% BC | BC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 7:07 | L. Lombardo missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +7% SYR | BC: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 6:19 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% BC | BC: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boston College 100% · Syracuse 0%
- Final margin
- Boston College by 22
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for Syracuse
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Boston College by 24.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Boston College 100% · Syracuse 0% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Boston College · 
Syracuse
More from Week 14 2025
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Georgia vs Georgia Tech UGA 16–9 · replay 35% for the winner
- Clemson at South Carolina CLEM 28–14 · replay 47% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Duke DUKE 49–32 · replay 47% for the winner
- Florida State at Florida FLA 40–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Stanford ND 49–20 · replay 95% for the winner
- North Carolina at NC State NCSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Miami at Pittsburgh MIA 38–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Kentucky at Louisville LOU 41–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Virginia UVA 27–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner