luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 54 of the 61 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Florida State at Florida, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Florida beat Florida State 40–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:59 left): Florida State was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to Florida.

Final

Florida State Seminoles 21
Florida Gators 40

November 29, 2025 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · Closing line: Florida State −1.5

Luck index +22 Florida about even · −22 Florida State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida State wins 2, Florida wins 8.

  1. 1 FSU 31 FLA 17
  2. 2 FSU 27 FLA 21
  3. 3 FSU 27 FLA 30
  4. 4 FSU 21 FLA 26
  5. 5 FSU 24 FLA 31
  6. 6 FSU 14 FLA 24
  7. 7 FSU 13 FLA 27
  8. 8 FSU 14 FLA 31
  9. 9 FSU 17 FLA 38
  10. 10 FSU 7 FLA 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida State wins 22% of them, Florida 78%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida State by 17+2.8%
Florida State by 9–166.1%
Florida State by 1–810.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Florida by 1–825.1%
Florida by 9–1620.2%
Florida by 17+32.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.3 points to Florida: the final margin was Florida by 19, without the luck Florida by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Smack, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Weinberg, 42 yds missed · 67% expected
  • T. Smack, 54 yds made · 52% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Florida State 3 for 13 yards, Florida 4 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 11:00 Face Mask on Florida, 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% FSU +2.1 pts
Q3 10:18 Face Mask on Florida State, 3 yards +2% FLA +0.9 pts
Q3 6:21 Illegal Substitution on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% FLA +2.5 pts
Q4 14:12 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida, 11 yards +1% FSU +1.4 pts
Q4 13:34 False Start on Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FSU +0.6 pts
Q4 6:05 Illegal Motion on Florida State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% FLA +2.5 pts
Q4 1:48 Holding on Florida, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% FSU +4.7 pts

When it happened

Florida’s chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida was ahead in it, below while Florida State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:25 Florida converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% FLA FLA: Field goal
2 Q1 7:24 Florida State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +7% FLA FSU: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:46 Florida converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% FLA FLA: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:49 Florida converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% FLA FLA: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:00 Face Mask on Florida, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% FSU FSU: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 11:23 Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected +6% FLA FSU: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 10:59 Florida State was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +10% FLA FSU: Punt
8 Q3 6:21 Illegal Substitution on Florida State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% FLA FLA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida State 31% · Florida 69%

Final margin
Florida by 19
Luck in points
15.3 for Florida
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Florida State 22% · Florida 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 54 of the 61 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Florida State · Florida

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