luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Alabama at Auburn, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Alabama beat Auburn 27–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Alabama wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Alabama.

Before kickoff Alabama was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:50 left): Alabama converted 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to Alabama.

Final

Alabama Crimson Tide 27
Auburn Tigers 20

November 29, 2025 · Jordan-Hare Stadium · Closing line: Alabama −7

Luck index +59 Alabama lucky · −59 Auburn

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Alabama wins 4, Auburn wins 6.

  1. 1 ALA 31 AUB 10
  2. 2 ALA 16 AUB 3
  3. 3 ALA 13 AUB 7
  4. 4 ALA 17 AUB 14
  5. 5 ALA 10 AUB 12
  6. 6 ALA 7 AUB 13
  7. 7 ALA 10 AUB 19
  8. 8 ALA 10 AUB 23
  9. 9 ALA 3 AUB 20
  10. 10 ALA 7 AUB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Alabama wins 41% of them, Auburn 59%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Alabama by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Alabama by 17+6.5%
Alabama by 9–1610.7%
Alabama by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation6.5%
Auburn by 1–823.2%
Auburn by 9–1617.8%
Auburn by 17+18.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to Alabama: the final margin was Alabama by 7, without the luck Alabama by 4.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Talty, 45 yds made · 60% expected
  • A. McPherson, 26 yds made · 94% expected
  • A. McPherson, 43 yds made · 71% expected
  • C. Talty, 29 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Alabama 7 for 72 yards, Auburn 9 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:46 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +2% AUB +1.3 pts
Q1 14:15 Face Mask on Auburn, 15 yards +2% ALA +1.6 pts
Q1 11:48 Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALA +0.5 pts
Q1 7:29 Personal Foul on Alabama, 15 yards +1% AUB +0.9 pts
Q1 6:04 False Start on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALA +0.2 pts
Q1 4:56 Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ALA +1.3 pts
Q1 1:08 Personal Foul on Alabama, 15 yards +1% AUB +0.9 pts
Q2 6:24 Targeting on Alabama, 5 yards +2% AUB +1.0 pts
Q2 4:09 Delay of Game on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ALA +0.2 pts
Q2 1:01 Illegal Formation on Auburn, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% ALA +5.6 pts
Q3 10:38 Offside on Auburn, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% ALA +3.0 pts
Q4 13:49 Pass Interference on Alabama, 11 yards +4% AUB +1.4 pts
Q4 10:26 Pass Interference on Auburn, 10 yards +8% ALA +1.9 pts
Q4 5:42 Roughing the Passer on Auburn, 14 yards +9% ALA +1.8 pts
Q4 5:31 Holding on Alabama, 10 yards +3% AUB +0.6 pts
Q4 2:32 Pass Interference on Alabama, 6 yards +4% AUB +1.9 pts

When it happened

Auburn’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Auburn was ahead in it, below while Alabama was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:01 Illegal Formation on Auburn, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% ALA ALA: Field goal
2 Q3 1:04 Auburn converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% AUB AUB: Turnover
3 Q4 12:57 Auburn converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% AUB AUB: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:26 Pass Interference on Auburn, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% ALA ALA: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:53 Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +9% AUB ALA: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:42 Roughing the Passer on Auburn, 14 yardsJudgment calls +9% ALA ALA: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:54 Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +10% AUB ALA: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:50 Alabama converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +12% ALA ALA: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Alabama 69% · Auburn 31%

Final margin
Alabama by 7
Luck in points
2.1 for Alabama
Luck-adjusted margin
Alabama by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Alabama 41% · Auburn 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Alabama · Auburn

More from Week 14 2025

Every week 14 game, 2025