Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Utah at Kansas, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Kansas 31–21, but the replays lean toward Kansas: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form.
Utah won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kansas it would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers
Before kickoff Utah was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:52 left): Return touchdown by Utah, worth 40 points of win probability to Utah.
Final
 Utah Utes | 31 |
|---|---|
 Kansas Jayhawks | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +80 Utah very lucky · −80 Kansas
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Utah wins 2, Kansas wins 8.
- 1 UTAH 30 KU 17
- 2 UTAH 30 KU 27
- 3 UTAH 14 KU 17
- 4 UTAH 24 KU 30
- 5 UTAH 17 KU 25
- 6 UTAH 10 KU 21
- 7 UTAH 24 KU 38
- 8 UTAH 17 KU 35
- 9 UTAH 26 KU 49
- 10 UTAH 14 KU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Utah won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Kansas it would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
54 points apart for Utah: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.12 | better by 0.10 |
| Utah defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.02 | worse by 0.24 |
| Kansas offenseEPA per play gained | +0.26 | +0.15 | better by 0.11 |
| Kansas defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.14 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Utah wins 20% of them, Kansas 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Utah by 17+ | 3.1% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 9.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Kansas by 1–8 | 21.7% |
| Kansas by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Kansas by 17+ | 36.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Curtis, 34 yds made · 81% expected
- L. Marjan, 36 yds missed · 82% expected
Penalties: Utah 9 for 65 yards, Kansas 4 for 32 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:20 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.1 pts |
| Q2 14:59 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards | +2% KU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:13 | Personal Foul on Utah, 15 yards | +3% KU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:38 | Illegal Formation on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:42 | False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:25 | Illegal Shift on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Delay of Game on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KU +0.1 pts |
| Q3 7:33 | False Start on Kansas, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UTAH +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:30 | False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% KU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:38 | Pass Interference on Kansas, 15 yards | +5% UTAH +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:46 | Illegal Block on Kansas, 7 yards | +1% UTAH +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:07 | Illegal Substitution on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:28 | False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% UTAH +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Kansas’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:16 | L. Marjan missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him | +5% UTAH | KU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 12:09 | Utah was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% KU | UTAH: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 8:02 | Utah fumbled and Kansas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% KU | UTAH: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 6:34 | Kansas was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% UTAH | KU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 3:48 | Kansas converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +8% KU | KU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 12:43 | Utah converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +8% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:52 | Return touchdown by UtahSpecial teams | +40% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 5:32 | Kansas converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +9% KU | KU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Utah 97% · Kansas 3%
- Final margin
- Utah by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.6 for Kansas
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 11.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Utah 20% · Kansas 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Utah · 
Kansas
More from Week 14 2025
- Cincinnati at TCU TCU 45–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Houston at Baylor HOU 31–24 · replay 52% for the winner
- Arizona at Arizona State ARIZ 23–7 · replay 63% for the winner
- Colorado at Kansas State KSU 24–14 · replay 69% for the winner
- UCF at BYU BYU 41–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Iowa State at Oklahoma State ISU 20–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Texas Tech at West Virginia TTU 49–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner