Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Iowa State at Oklahoma State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Iowa State wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa State was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:09 left): Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards, worth 8 points of win probability to Oklahoma State.
Final
 Iowa State Cyclones | 20 |
|---|---|
 Oklahoma State Cowboys | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Iowa State about even · −8 Oklahoma State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa State wins 9, Oklahoma State wins 1.
- 1 ISU 41 OKST 3
- 2 ISU 37 OKST 7
- 3 ISU 31 OKST 5
- 4 ISU 23 OKST 0
- 5 ISU 29 OKST 10
- 6 ISU 22 OKST 6
- 7 ISU 13 OKST 0
- 8 ISU 9 OKST 0
- 9 ISU 10 OKST 7
- 10 ISU 13 OKST 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa State wins 92% of them, Oklahoma State 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa State by 17+ | 60.3% |
| Iowa State by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Iowa State by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Oklahoma State by 1–8 | 4.2% |
| Oklahoma State by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Oklahoma State by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Konrardy, 45 yds made · 64% expected
- L. Ward, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- L. Ward, 41 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Iowa State 5 for 54 yards, Oklahoma State 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:11 | Holding on Iowa State, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +3% OKST +2.0 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yards | +2% OKST +1.0 pts |
| Q3 13:09 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +8% OKST +4.3 pts |
| Q3 8:45 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards | +3% ISU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 8:38 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oklahoma State, 15 yards | +5% ISU +2.7 pts |
| Q3 0:43 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yards | +4% ISU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:32 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards | +3% OKST +3.1 pts |
| Q4 1:17 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% OKST +5.8 pts |
When it happened
Oklahoma State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:19 | Oklahoma State fumbled and Iowa State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% ISU | OKST: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 3:50 | Oklahoma State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% OKST | OKST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 14:16 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +3% OKST | ISU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 13:09 | Holding on Iowa State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% OKST | OKST: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 10:06 | Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +4% OKST | ISU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 8:38 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oklahoma State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% ISU | ISU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 5:31 | L. Ward made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +5% ISU | OKST: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 0:43 | Holding on Oklahoma State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% ISU | ISU: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa State 99% · Oklahoma State 1%
- Final margin
- Iowa State by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.1 for Oklahoma State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa State by 14.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa State 92% · Oklahoma State 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Iowa State · 
Oklahoma State
More from Week 14 2025
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Cincinnati at TCU TCU 45–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Houston at Baylor HOU 31–24 · replay 52% for the winner
- Arizona at Arizona State ARIZ 23–7 · replay 63% for the winner
- Colorado at Kansas State KSU 24–14 · replay 69% for the winner
- UCF at BYU BYU 41–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texas Tech at West Virginia TTU 49–0 · replay 96% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner